North Carolina vs. Minnesota score prediction by college football analytic model

What the analytics predict for North Carolina vs. Minnesota in this Week 1 college football game.

Expert score predictions for North Carolina vs. Minnesota as the Week 1 college football schedule gets underway. / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Week 1 kicks off on Thursday night with a notable Big Ten vs. ACC matchup in the Twin Cities as Minnesota welcomes North Carolina in college football's 2024 season opener today.

Carolina is undergoing plenty of change on both sides of the ball, having to replace outgoing quarterback Drake Maye and installing Geoff Collins as coordinator of a defense that has not played up to its potential in recent years.

Minnesota is coming off its first losing season since 2017 and makes a change at quarterback of its own after posting dismal offensive numbers a year ago.

What can we expect when things kick off? Let's check in on how the SP+ prediction model devised by ESPN projects the matchup, along with the latest betting info for the Week 1 game.

North Carolina vs. Minnesota prediction

The simulations favor an early victory for the Tar Heels, but are calling for a close game.

SP+ predicts that North Carolina will defeat Minnesota by a projected score of 26 to 25 and to win the game by a projected 1.2 points.

The model gives the Tar Heels a narrow 53 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Point spread

North Carolina is a narrow 1.5 point favorite against Minnesota, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 50.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for North Carolina at -130 and for Minnesota at +108.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Minnesota +1.5
• North Carolina to win -130
• Over 50.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools are also picking North Carolina to take down Minnesota in Week 1.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that North Carolina will win the game in 54.3 percent of its simulations, while the Gophers win out in the remaining 45.7 percent of sims.

The computer predicts a very close game, suggesting that the Tar Heels are 4.3 points better than Minnesota.

That would be enough for Carolina to cover the 1.5 point spread against the Gophers.

North Carolina vs. Minnesota game time, schedule

When: Thurs., Aug. 29
Time: 9 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

Related: Minnesota vs. North Carolina game prediction, preview

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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