Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Army Black Knights prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Notre Dame and Army meet in this Week 13 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Notre Dame vs. Army Prediction 2024 / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What you should watch for as No. 6 Notre Dame meets No. 19 Army at Yankee Stadium, with our updated prediction for this impactful late-season game.

This year marks the first time that Notre Dame and Army have met on the same field both as ranked teams since the 1958 season, which was also the last time the Black Knights beat the Fighting Irish in football.

The sight of Notre Dame and Army on the same field, especially at Yankee Stadium, will be reminiscent of some legendary meetings between these schools.

These rivals famously met in 1945 and 1946, during the Army glory years when the Cadets outscored the Irish 107 to 0, and the famous 0-0 tie in the 1946 game in the Bronx at the end of World War II that has earned “Game of the Century” designation.

Army hasn’t defeated a top-10 team since 1963, and doing so this year would add some rocket fuel to the Black Knights’ strength of schedule and quality win resume in the eyes of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, which has been skeptical of this team’s accomplishments.

That’s despite Army being one of college football’s three remaining undefeated teams and winners of 13 straight going back to last year, the longest streak in the country, and having already clinched a spot in the AAC Championship Game.

The selectors are considerably more confident in the Fighting Irish, who, ever since that loss at home to Northern Illinois, have won 9 straight games and rank No. 2 nationally with a plus-26.6 point differential on average against opponents this season.

What can we expect as the Fighting Irish and Black Knights square off in this matchup?

Here’s what you should watch for as Notre Dame and Army meet in this Week 13 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Notre Dame vs. Army prediction: What you need to know

1. Turnovers. Army has just two lost fumbles all season and is tops nationally with the fewest giveaways (3), while Notre Dame is No. 1 in the country with 25 takeaways and had 5 fumble recoveries and an interception in the big win against Navy, which plays a similar brand of football to Army.

2. Own the clock. Army leads the country in rushing production, is second in FBS in third down conversion success and in time of possession, making any opposing game plan for Notre Dame only too obvious: keep the West Point offense off the field with their own rushing attack.

That’s something they can do: Irish quarterback Riley Leonard leads the team with 13 rushing touchdowns, tailback Jeremiyah Love has scored at least once in all 10 games while covering 720 yards, and Jadarian Price leads the roster with 7.3 yards per carry.

3. Expect defense. Both these teams come into the Bronx as two of college football’s best scoring defenses this season. Army is tops nationally allowing just 10.3 points per game this year, tied with Ohio State, while Notre Dame is right behind in surrendering 11.4 points each time out. We’ll see which offense is able to break through which one of these stingy defenses.

What the analytics say

Most football prediction models favor the Fighting Irish to take down the Black Knights this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Notre Dame is the big favorite in the game on the index, coming out ahead in the majority 87.5 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Army as the presumptive winner in the remaining 12.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Notre Dame is projected to be 17.3 points better than Army on the same field in both teams’ current capacity, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Notre Dame vs. Army prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Notre Dame is a 14.5 point favorite against Army, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

FanDuel set the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -690 and for Army at +480 to win outright.

Notre Dame vs. Army prediction: Who wins?

This game is giving us something like deja vu, looking back to when Notre Dame played Navy, at the time another apparently-dominant and undefeated service academy.

Back then, we picked the Irish to win by two touchdowns against the Midshipmen, and while the Black Knights are a little better at throwing the football, that seems like a good bet here again.

Notre Dame’s expert pass defense won’t be pressured by the Black Knights’ limited vertical attack, and the Irish should have a marked size advantage when stacking bodies on both lines of scrimmage.

That’s in addition to an athleticism edge boasting perimeter defenders who can close down any routes to the outside of the formation and limit Army to moderate gains.

From there, the Irish have the variety and speed to blow open a few holes in Army’s coverage.

Don’t expect the Black Knights to be anywhere near as generous with the ball as Navy in terms of giveaways, which should keep this margin closer than that game, but the Irish have the size and the speed that Army’s previous opponents didn’t have.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Notre Dame wins 37-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Notre Dame vs. Army score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Notre Dame vs. Army

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: New York, N.Y.

Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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