Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Indiana Hoosiers prediction: Who wins, and why?

What you should watch for as Notre Dame and Indiana kick off the first-ever expanded College Football Playoff matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Indiana Hoosiers football prediction 2024 / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Friday night football takes on a new meaning today as Notre Dame and Indiana meet in the first expanded College Football Playoff game, and the first on campus. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Notre Dame recovered from a shocking loss at home to Northern Illinois to win 10 straight games and lead college football in margin of victory this season, earning the right to host a first round game to kick off a historic College Football Playoff.

Indiana is college football’s Cinderella team this season, playing to a program-best record under first year coach Curt Cignetti, and is second in FBS in scoring with more than 43 points per game.

What can we expect as the Hoosiers take on the Fighting Irish in this historic postseason matchup?

Here’s what you should watch for as Notre Dame plays host to Indiana in this first round College Football Playoff game, with our updated prediction.

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Notre Dame vs. Indiana prediction: What to watch

1. Pressure. To counter Indiana’s aggressive downfield attack, Notre Dame wants to set its defensive front against IU’s protection, something it does almost 46 percent of the time, even if that pressure doesn’t always produce: ND is 91st in negative plays created.

And the Hoosiers are built to withstand that pressure: quarterback Kurtis Rourke is first in FBS in pass efficiency, yards per attempts, and red zone efficiency when under pressure, and he’s yet to throw an interception when working inside the opponents’ 20.

Indiana can bring some heat, too, recording a pressure against opposing quarterbacks almost 40 percent of the time, ranking third in FBS, and could have an advantage against an Irish line that is 50th nationally in surrendering pressure on more than a quarter of dropbacks.

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2. On the ground. Notre Dame is 10th nationally in rushing output with almost 225 yards per game, is third in FBS with more than 6.3 yards per carry, and ranks fifth with 40 rushing touchdowns this season, just ahead of Indiana’s 37.

Senior quarterback Riley Leonard is integral to that effort, more of a threat rushing than passing, stacking up 721 yards on the ground with 14 touchdowns.

Sophomore back Jeremiyah Love leads the way for the Irish with 945 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, while junior Jadarian Price has 615 yards and 7 additional scores.

But they’re facing a Hoosiers run stop that is among the nation’s most stingy, allowing just 2.46 yards per attempt from opposing rushers, surrenders just 70 yards per game on average, and is the only team in FBS to allow under 1,000 total yards on the ground all year (850).

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3. Going deep. Notre Dame’s pass defense is one of the nation’s best, ranking third in total production, allowing just 48 percent completion, and only 9 touchdowns while giving up just 26 completions of 20 or more yards downfield.

Kurtis Rourke leads one of the country’s most productive passing offenses, throwing for 2,827 yards with 27 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions, placing ninth in this year’s Heisman voting.

He commands the best red zone offense in America, too, scoring touchdowns on more than 81 percent of possessions inside the opponents’ 20, and the Hoosiers’ 54 red zone TDs are also the most.

Indiana boasts a remarkable skill arsenal, led by wide receiver Elijah Sarratt and other targets like Omar Cooper, Ke’Shawn Williams, and Myles Price, a group that averages more than 14 yards per reception.

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Who is favored?

Notre Dame is a 6.5 point favorite against Indiana, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -245 and for Indiana at +198 to win outright.

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Notre Dame vs. Indiana prediction: Who wins?

Indiana’s subpar strength of schedule and lackluster performance against Ohio State will be a subject of conversation leading into this game.

That ugly 38-15 loss on the road was the only blemish on the Hoosiers’ record that included their ranking third nationally with a 24.5 point differential against opponents.

Cignetti should have his team mentally prepared to avoid another disaster like that, and he has the weapons to credibly test an Irish secondary that, while remarkably productive on paper, has not faced an offense quite this productive or that has this many options.

And while the Hoosiers have put up good numbers against the run, that success has come against some of the nation’s least-threatening rushing offenses.

Notre Dame boasts a three-headed backfield working behind one of the country’s most cohesive lines that represents a marked degree of difficulty for Indiana’s front to consistently stop.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Notre Dame wins 27-21
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Notre Dame vs. Indiana score prediction by football model

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How to watch Indiana vs. Notre Dame

When: Fri., Dec. 20
Where: Notre Dame, Ind.

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC, ESPN networks

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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