Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. USC Trojans prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Notre Dame visits USC in this college football rivalry matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Notre Dame vs. USC Prediction 2024 / Michael Clubb / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A college football rivalry nearly a century in the making kicks off from the Coliseum as Notre Dame visits USC in the 2024 regular season finale. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Notre Dame sits squarely in the College Football Playoff picture this week, coming in at No. 5 in the committee’s most recent rankings, and as the projected No. 7 seed would host a first-round game against SMU if the playoff started today.

But there’s no margin for error for the Fighting Irish, who, despite a strong nine-game win streak, still has that loss at home to Northern Illinois that could have the committee grading this team on a more severe curve if anything goes wrong against the Trojans.

USC started off the 2024 season strong, beating LSU in Las Vegas, but little else has gone right ever since then, stumbling in with a 6-5 mark in its debut season as Big Ten members.

Those struggles moved head coach Lincoln Riley to make a prominent swap at quarterback, pulling Miller Moss and inserting Jayden Maiava after the Washington loss, a decision that has given the Trojans’ offense some newfound confidence late in the season.

What can we expect as the Fighting Irish pay a visit to the Trojans this weekend?

Here’s what you should watch for as Notre Dame and USC square off in this Week 14 college football rivalry game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Notre Dame vs. USC prediction: What to watch

1. Red zone. Scoring points inside the 20 has been a strength for Notre Dame all year, ranking No. 9 in FBS coming away with touchdowns on more than 75 percent of possessions. 

USC has fared well in red zone defense, part of its general improvement on that side of the ball, allowing touchdowns on just 51 percent of opportunities, or 19 of 37 chances.

2. Close games. After losing three straight games, USC has won 3 of its last 4 and has just one loss at home, by a field goal in overtime against playoff-bound Penn State, and despite the ugly 6-5 record, this team has been in every game this year.

USC has led in the fourth quarter of each game it’s played, all of those contests were decided by just one possession, and the Trojans have lost their 5 games by a combined 19 points.

3. Defense. USC’s defense was abysmal the last two years, but the addition of coordinator D’Anton Lynn has found the unit markedly improved when it comes to surrendering points.

USC is allowing opponents to score 21.3 points this season, a nearly two-touchdown improvement from the 34.4 points the defense allowed last season.

But there’s still one notable vulnerability on that side of the ball. USC ranks just 93rd among 134 FBS teams against the pass, allowing more than 235 yards through the air per game on average.

Notre Dame enters the Coliseum with 37 rushing touchdowns, the third-most in FBS, and ranking 10th nationally on the ground, posting a solid 6.26 yards per carry, but could do its greatest damage by exploiting some of those midfield lanes the Trojans are still keeping open.

Who is favored?

Notre Dame is a 6.5 point favorite against USC, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for this rivalry matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -275 and for USC at +220 to win outright.

Notre Dame vs. USC prediction: Who wins the game?

USC’s improvements on defense are a very welcome development, but the team’s slipshod performance in close games illustrates a combination of coaching and execution failures that will become only too apparent against a team of Notre Dame’s caliber.

Riley Leonard isn’t known for his passing exploits, but he has enough of an arm and plenty of quality targets who can take advantage of a Trojans air defense that is still a team weakness.

Combine that with a solid defensive front rotation that should eventually overwhelm USC’s pass protection and the nation’s most efficient secondary unit, and this should trend one way.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Notre Dame wins 31-23
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Notre Dame vs. USC score prediction by expert model

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College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Notre Dame vs. USC

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Los Angeles, Calif.

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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