Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M score prediction by football expert model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M in this Week 1 college football game.

Expert score prediction for Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M in this Week 1 college football game. / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Week 1 of a historic 2024 college football kicks off from the home of the 12th Man as Texas A&M debuts new head coach Mike Elko in an early-season test against Notre Dame on Saturday.

Elko steps in for Jimbo Fisher, and while he suffered notable losses to the transfer portal, he also had some notable gains, especially reigning Big Ten sacks leader Nic Scourton, who will help anchor what should be a strong front seven alignment going forward.

Notre Dame lost its two key blockers, and then a third to injury, something to watch as dual-threat transfer quarterback Riley Leonard steps under center coming off an injury of his own, but loaded with potential to lead this offense if he can stay upright and unharmed.

What can we make of the game? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to forecast what will happen as Texas A&M hosts Notre Dame on Saturday night.

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M prediction

The simulations favor a very close game, one currently in favor of the visitors to win.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Texas A&M by a projected score of 29 to 27 and to win the game by an expected 1.8 points.

The model gives Notre Dame a close 54 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M point spread, game lines

Texas A&M is a 2.5 point favorite against Notre Dame, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -150 and for Notre Dame at +125.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Notre Dame +2.5
• Notre Dame to win +125
• Over 46.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic tools are expecting Notre Dame to pull out the win against Texas A&M.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The model expects Notre Dame to win the game in 58.7 percent of its simulations, while Texas A&M comes out as the projected winner in the other 41.3 percent of sims.

The index calculates that Notre Dame will be just 5.4 points better than Texas A&M on any field.

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M game time, schedule

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET, 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks