Notre Dame vs. Army football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for when Notre Dame and Army meet at Yankee Stadium from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Notre Dame vs. Army football prediction 2024 / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

A notable late-season matchup kicks off from Yankee Stadium as No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 19 Army square off on Saturday. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert football analytical model that simulates games.

Notre Dame sits squarely in the College Football Playoff picture and hopes it can put on another strong performance against an undefeated service academy after shellacking Navy a few weeks ago.

Army has already clinched a spot in the AAC Championship Game and wants to take what would be a giant leap forward in the eyes of the selection committee and potentially end the Irish’s playoff hopes.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Notre Dame vs. Army predictions

So far, the models are siding strongly with the Fighting Irish over the Black Knights of West Point.

Notre Dame is the big favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 87.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Army as the presumptive winner in the remaining 12.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Fighting Irish come out on top in 17,500 of the computer’s simulations, while the Black Knights edge out ND in the other 2,500 predictions of the game.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Notre Dame is projected to be 17.3 points better than Army on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Irish to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Notre Dame is a 14.5 point favorite against Army, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -750 and for Army at +520 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors expect the Fighting Irish will handle the Black Knights, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Notre Dame is getting 51 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big point spread.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Army will either win outright in the upset or keep the game under 15 points in a loss.

Notre Dame vs. Army future projections

Notre Dame is ninth among all teams nationally with a 73.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Fighting Irish a win total projection of 10.5 games this season.

Army places 18th among 134 FBS teams and second in the AAC with a 16.2 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff in the latest calculations.

The index projects the Black Knights will win 10.9 games in ‘24.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 13

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. Miami
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Colorado
17. Clemson
18. South Carolina
19. Army
20. Tulane
21. Arizona State
22. Iowa State
23. Missouri
24. UNLV
25. Illinois

How to watch Notre Dame vs. Army

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: New York, N.Y.

Time: 7 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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