Notre Dame vs. Florida State score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Florida State in this Week 11 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Notre Dame vs. Florida State score prediction / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Coming off a statement win two weeks ago, No. 10 Notre Dame returns home against reeling Florida State on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Notre Dame trashed then-undefeated Navy in a signature moment that helped place the team in the top-10 of the first College Football Playoff rankings, but there’s little margin for error going forward as it hovers near the cut-off point in the new playoff system.

Florida State’s season basically ended in Week 1, starting 0-3 and losing its last five games, coming in at 1-8 and facing major questions as it ranks near the bottom nationally in passing, rushing, and scoring production.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Fighting Irish and Seminoles meet in this matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Florida State compare in this Week 11 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Florida State score prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Fighting Irish over the Seminoles.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Florida State by a projected score of 38 to 10 and to win the game by an expected margin of 27.8 points.

The model gives the Irish a strong 96 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Notre Dame vs. Florida State odds, how to pick

Notre Dame is a 25.5 point favorite against Florida State, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 42.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -10000 and for Florida State at +2400 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Notre Dame -25.5
• ND to win -10000
• Bet over 42.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors, who expect the Fighting Irish to handle the Seminoles with ease, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Notre Dame is getting 65 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big point spread.

The other 35 percent of wagers project Florida State will either win outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the margin under 26 points in a loss.

Notre Dame vs. Florida State splits

Notre Dame ranks No. 5 nationally with a plus-24.5 point scoring margin per game on average this season.

Florida State comes in 116th out of 134 FBS teams with a minus-12.9 point margin per game.

Those margins have diverged over the last three games, as the Irish have proven 32.3 points better than opponents while the Seminoles have averaged 17.7 points worse over that span.

Playing at home this season, Notre Dame has been 18 points better than opponents on average, while Florida State has been 14.5 points worse when on the road in 2024.

Florida State ranks No. 131 nationally with 0.230 points per play on offense, compared to a Notre Dame defense that is 2nd in FBS by allowing 0.185 points per play.

On the other side, the Irish rank No. 10 with 0.560 points per play offensively, going up against a Seminoles defense that is 75th by surrendering 0.383 points per play.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models also favor the Irish over the Seminoles by a wide margin here.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame comes out ahead in the overwhelming 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the game.

That leaves Florida State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory for the game?

Notre Dame is projected to be 29.2 points better than Florida State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Notre Dame vs. Florida State future projections

Notre Dame sits 10th nationally among 134 FBS teams with a 62.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Fighting Irish will win 10.4 games this season.

And it forecasts Notre Dame has a 50.2 percent chance to win out the remainder of the season, ranking third nationally in that category, behind Washington State (50.5%) and Boise State (58.3%).

Florida State sits at the bottom of the ACC with a 2.3 win total projection this season, according to the index’s calculations.

How to watch Florida State vs. Notre Dame

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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