Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech by a football model that picks winners.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech football prediction / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

On a four-game win streak, No. 12 Notre Dame hits the road against Georgia Tech looking to stay in the playoff race in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Notre Dame has recovered nicely from its loss to Northern Illinois, winning four straight games and playing the nation’s 8th-ranked scoring defense, although the team just lost star cornerback Benjamin Morrison for the season with a hip injury.

Georgia Tech is on a two-game win streak after losing 2 of its last 3 and sits at 5-2 overall behind a rushing attack that ranks 25th in FBS with over 204 yards per game on average.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech predictions

So far, the prediction models are siding strongly with the Fighting Irish in this road game.

Notre Dame is projected to win the game outright in the majority 83.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Georgia Tech as the expected winner in the remaining 16.5 percent of sims.

In total, Notre Dame came out ahead in 16,700 of the index’s simulations of the game, while Georgia Tech emerged as the winner in the other 3,300 predictions.

The index forecasts a double-digit win for the Irish over the Yellow Jackets on the scoreboard.

Notre Dame is projected to be 14.6 points better than Georgia Tech on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Irish to cover the spread.

That’s because Notre Dame is an 11 point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -425 and for Georgia Tech at +340 to win outright.

A plurality of bettors expect the Yellow Jackets will make this a game against the Irish, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Georgia Tech is getting 56 percent of bets to either win in an upset or to keep the game within the line.

Notre Dame is getting the other 44 percent of wagers to win the game and cover the spread.

Notre Dame has a 57.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Georgia Tech a win total prediction of 6.8 games and a 0.7 percent chance at the 12-team playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. Army
24. Michigan
25. Navy

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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