Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech in this Week 8 college football game by an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech score prediction / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Coming off a fourth-straight win, No. 12 Notre Dame tries to keep its playoff hopes intact heading into its first road game in more than a month against Georgia Tech in Week 8 college football action. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Notre Dame is 2-0 against ACC teams this season, outlasting Louisville and Stanford, moving to 5-1 on the year and with no margin for error in the College Football Playoff chase with that loss to Northern Illinois still hanging over the team’s postseason resume.

Georgia Tech has won two straight games, against Duke and North Carolina, and is 3-2 in ACC play with losses to Louisville and Syracuse and looking ahead to a tougher second half of the season with dates against Miami and Georgia still to come.

What do the analytics suggest for this matchup in Atlanta?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Georgia Tech compare in this Week 8 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Fighting Irish against the Yellow Jackets.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Georgia Tech by a projected score of 33 to 22 and to win the game by an expected margin of 10.5 points.

The model gives the Irish a strong 74 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech picks, odds

Notre Dame is a 12 point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -450 and for Georgia Tech at +360 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Georgia Tech +12
• Notre Dame to win -450
• Bet over 48.5 points

A plurality of bettors are expecting the Yellow Jackets to make this a game against the Fighting Irish, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

60 percent of bets are predicting that Georgia Tech will either win the game in an upset, or keep the game within the 12 point line.

The other 40 percent of wagers expect Notre Dame will win the game and cover the spread.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also strongly favor the Fighting Irish over the Yellow Jackets this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is projected to win the game outright in the majority 83.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Georgia Tech as the expected winner in the remaining 16.8 percent of sims.

Notre Dame is projected to be 14.6 points better than Georgia Tech on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Notre Dame has a 57.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Georgia Tech a win total prediction of 6.8 games and a 0.7 percent chance at the 12-team playoff.

How to watch Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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