Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Notre Dame and Georgia Tech meet in this Week 8 college football game with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech Prediction / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Riding high on a four-game win streak, No. 12 Notre Dame hits the road against Georgia Tech looking to stay in the playoff race in college football’s Week 8 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for as the Fighting Irish and Yellow Jackets face off, with our updated prediction for the game.

Notre Dame is perfect over the last month and playing the nation’s 8th-ranked scoring defense, although the team just lost star cornerback Benjamin Morrison for the season with a hip injury.

Georgia Tech is on a two-game win streak after losing 2 of its last 3 and sits at 5-2 overall behind a rushing attack that ranks 25th in FBS with over 204 yards per game on average.

What can we expect as the Fighting Irish and Yellow Jackets face off this weekend?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Notre Dame and Georgia Tech meet in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech prediction: What to watch

1. Target the Irish corners. The loss of Morrison compromises an already-depleted Notre Dame defense that doesn’t have two linemen and corner Jaden Mickey, but still ranks No. 6 in FBS against the pass, is 2nd by allowing 47.9 percent completion, has intercepted 7 passes and allowed 5 touchdowns in the air.

Georgia Tech’s Haynes King is unlikely to play in the game with an upper body injury, depriving the offense of the ACC’s most accurate passer when on the field, hitting 71.2% of his throws for 1,568 yards and 8 touchdowns with just 1 interception.

2. Tech on the ground. King is an able rusher in addition to his passing efficiency, ranking second on the team with 353 yards on the ground and 6 additional touchdowns, and his absence will force the Yellow Jackets into a more run-oriented approach.

Backup quarterback Zach Pyron is also a quality runner, making up for his limited exposure as a passer by rushing for 60 yards and 4 touchdowns this year, and Jamal Haynes leads a Tech backfield that is 1st in the ACC with over 204 rushing yards per game.

3. Going deep. Notre Dame dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard isn’t known as much for his passing acumen, but he’s coming off a solid 16 of 22 effort with 229 yards and 3 touchdowns last week against Stanford, and needs to repeat or improve those numbers this week.

Tech should give him and the Irish receivers room to work on the back end, allowing opponents to average more than 223 yards per game in passing production, ranking 91st in opposing completion rate and 107th in total yards, allowing 11 touchdowns and intercepting just 1 pass.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models favor the Fighting Irish over the Yellow Jackets this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

That model gives Notre Dame a strong 83.1 percent chance to win the game outright, according to the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

Georgia Tech is expected to win out in the remaining 16.9 percent of the index’s simulations.

Notre Dame is projected to be 14.6 points better than Georgia Tech on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech picks: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Notre Dame is a 9.5 point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -380 and for Georgia Tech at +300 to win outright.

A plurality of bettors expect the Yellow Jackets to make this a game against the Fighting Irish, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Georgia Tech is getting 60 percent of bets to either beat the Irish in an upset, or to keep the game under the 9.5 point spread.

Notre Dame is projected to win the game and cover the spread in the remaining 40 percent of wagers.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech prediction: Who wins?

Georgia Tech runs the ball well and is solid when defending against the run, an important combination that should keep this game closer than the Irish want it to be early on.

Those injuries on the defensive side of the ball also leave Notre Dame’s back seven looking younger and a little more vulnerable, which could leave some holes for Tech to exploit going deep.

If the Irish can put a dent into Tech’s rushing capacity and protect their quarterback well enough against an imposing front seven, then a double-digit victory is in the cards.

Georgia Tech has proven susceptible against dual-threat quarterbacks and is 13th in the ACC in 20-plus yard plays given up, which plays well into Leonard’s strength as a player.

The presence of King would have kept the game closer as his mobility is a crucial component of Tech’s success on the ground.

But his absence and the state of the Yellow Jackets’ secondary should be enough for the Irish offense to pull away and make this a 10-point game or better.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Notre Dame wins 31-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech score prediction by expert model

How to watch Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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