Notre Dame vs. Indiana score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Indiana in this historic first round College Football Playoff game.

Notre Dame vs. Indiana football score prediction 2024 / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame and Indiana face off in the first-ever expanded College Football Playoff game on a campus site. Here is the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

Notre Dame has won 10 straight games since the loss at home to Northern Illinois, and in dominant fashion, ranking first in college football in point differential, averaging out 26.3 points better than its opponents this season.

Indiana is right behind, sitting third nationally in that category, coming out nearly 25 points better than its competition, with the exception of an ugly loss at Ohio State, the only blemish on the record of a team that is second in FBS with over 43 points per game.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Fighting Irish host the Hoosiers in this historic matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Indiana compare in this first round College Football Playoff game.

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Notre Dame vs. Indiana score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Fighting Irish over the Hoosiers, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Indiana by a projected score of 28 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 4.8 points in the victory.

The model gives the Fighting Irish a 62 percent chance to win the game outright over the Hoosiers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Notre Dame vs. Indiana odds, how to pick the game

Notre Dame is a 7.5 point favorite against Indiana, according to the lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -280 and for Indiana at +225 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Indiana +7.5
• Notre Dame to win -280
• Bet over 51.5 points

That runs in line with where most of the money is going, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Indiana is getting 57 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin to a touchdown or less in a defeat.

The other 43 percent of wagers project Notre Dame will win the game and cover the spread.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Fighting Irish over the Hoosiers in this one.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is the big favorite in the game according to the index, coming out ahead as the expected winner in 70.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the contest.

Indiana emerged as the victor in the remaining 29.6 percent of simulations.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

The index is taking the other view, and expects the Irish to cover.

Notre Dame is projected to be 9.1 points better than Indiana on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Taking historic lines into consideration, Notre Dame is a solid 12-4 against the spread as a 7-point or greater favorite over the last two seasons, second-best nationally in that time.

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How to watch Notre Dame vs. Indiana

When: Fri., Dec. 20
Where: South Bend, Ind.

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC, ESPN networks

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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