Notre Dame vs. Louisville football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Notre Dame vs. Louisville by the football model that picks winners.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville football predictions / Clare Grant/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

One of this weekend’s four games between ranked opponents kicks off from the house that Rockne built as No. 16 Notre Dame hosts ACC challenger, No. 15 Louisville on Saturday.

Notre Dame has won 2 straight since losing at home to Northern Illinois, and Riley Leonard, currently at the helm of a passing offense that ranks 108th nationally, threw his first touchdown pass of the season in a 28-3 win over Miami of Ohio last week.

Louisville presents a more formidable passing threat, ranking 18th in FBS with 308 yards per game in the air and 15th nationally in scoring over 45 points per game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville predictions

So far, the models are favoring the home team to hand the Cards their first loss.

Notre Dame emerged as the projected winner in the majority 67.8 percent of the computer’s updated simulations for the game.

That leaves Louisville as the expected winner in 32.2 percent of the remaining sims.

Notre Dame is projected to be 6.9 points better than Louisville on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Fighting Irish to cover the spread.

That’s because Notre Dame is a 6 point favorite against Louisville, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 47.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -230 and for Louisville at +195 to win outright.

A majority of bettors are siding with Louisville in its road test against the Golden Domers.

Slightly more than half of wagers, 52 percent, predict that the Cardinals will either win in an upset or keep the game within the 6 point spread.

The remaining 48 percent of bets suggest that Notre Dame will win and cover the spread.

Notre Dame is projected to defeat Louisville 27 to 21, according to the implied score based on the game’s point spread and total.

Louisville is second among ACC teams with a 31.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts that Notre Dame will win 10 games and is 11th nationally with a 37.2 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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