Notre Dame vs. Louisville prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Notre Dame and Louisville meet in this Week 5 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville Prediction / Michael Clubb / USA TODAY NETWORK

Sitting atop the ACC standings and undefeated through four games, No. 15 Louisville plays under the eyes of Touchdown Jesus against No. 16 Notre Dame in a setting that has already hosted one notable upset this season, as college football’s Week 5 action kicks off on Saturday.

Just four weeks ago, Northern Illinois made history as the first MAC team to beat an AP top-five ranked team on the road, and while the Fighting Irish have recovered since then by winning two straight games, there are still vulnerabilities on this offense going forward.

Riley Leonard has only thrown 1 touchdown pass this season and he’s dealing with a recent shoulder injury while playing behind a line full of inexperienced blockers.

Enter the Cardinals, who are No. 14 nationally in total offensive production, averaging 502 yards per game, and 18th in FBS with 308 passing yards each time out, but are suddenly without wide receiver Jadon Thompson, who had 2 touchdown catches in the team’s season opener.

What can we expect in the matchup? Here’s what you should watch out for as Louisville and Notre Dame square off on Saturday, with our updated prediction for the game.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville prediction, preview

1. Ground the Cardinals. Notre Dame’s defense has been a strength so far this season, keeping opponents to just 9.8 points per game, but it faces the toughest test of its year against a Louisville offense that is 12th nationally with 47.3 points per game on average.

Sure, that total may be tilted by some early-season blowouts against cupcakes, but the Cards were efficient in the ACC opener against Georgia Tech. Tyler Shough went 13 of 19 passing for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

Louisville ran for just 57 yards in that game, however, which could be a good omen that the Irish defense can clamp down near the line and crowd out those rushing lanes early on.

2. Open things up. Riley Leonard’s output as Notre Dame’s quarterback has been decidedly mixed, as critics continue to cite the lack of a consistent downfield passing threat. 

He ranks 116th in FBS with 6.7 air yards per attempt, lending credence to those concerns, but the Cardinals have also struggled against mobile quarterbacks recently.

Leonard is coming off his best outing in an Irish uniform, throwing his first TD pass of the season while compiling 154 passing yards and leading the team with 143 yards on the ground and 2 additional touchdowns against Miami of Ohio. 

3. Cards take flight. Louisville’s experience at quarterback is a major advantage. Shough has thrown 8 touchdown passes with no interceptions, and is just 1 of 7 players in FBS to pull off those numbers. He’s also 6th nationally in passing efficiency and is tops in the ACC with more than 16 yards per completion.

But he faces a test against an Irish defense that is 8th nationally in intercepted passes, 10th in scoring, 16th in yards allowed, and 6th in pass efficiency defense.

Watch in particular how the Cardinals go against safety Xavier Watts, who led FBS with 7 picks a year ago and was the Bronko Nagurski Award winner as the nation’s best defensive player.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models currently favor the home team in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is projected to win the game in the majority 67.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Louisville as the expected winner in the remaining 32.5 percent of sims.

Notre Dame is projected to be 6.8 points better than Louisville on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Notre Dame vs. Louisville prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored? 

Notre Dame is a 6.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -235 and for Louisville at +190 to win outright.

And the book set the total at 46.5 points for the game.

Louisville has earned more confidence from bettors so far, as 53 percent of them are projecting the Cardinals will either win in an upset, or keep the game within the line.

The remaining 47 percent of bets predict that Notre Dame will win and cover the spread.

Notre Dame vs. Louisville prediction

Tyler Shough and the Cardinal receivers will be the fastest, most agile group of skill threats that the Irish tacklers have lined up against so far this season.

But conversely, Notre Dame’s defense will be, by far, the toughest overall obstacle the otherwise-potent Louisville offense has faced, too.

Shough will find some creases on the back end of this defense that will make things tense for the home crowd, but the Irish have the bodies to contest the Louisville offense in scoring position and hold it to field goals instead of touchdowns.

Leonard will be able to skirt around some of Louisville’s scrimmage defenders and pop through for a few solid gainers, and likely score at least one touchdown with his legs.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Notre Dame wins 24-21
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the under

More: Notre Dame vs. Louisville score prediction by expert model

How to watch Notre Dame vs. Louisville

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: Peacock

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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