Notre Dame vs. Miami (OH) score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Miami (OH) in this Week 4 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Miami (OH) Prediction / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Notre Dame returns home coming off a strong road victory but looking to avoid disaster against another MAC team in the house that Rockne built, as Miami of Ohio comes to town in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

The last time the Irish played under the eyes of Touchdown Jesus, it ended with Northern Illinois kicking a go-ahead field goal in a historic upset that marked the first time a MAC team defeated an AP top-five ranked team.

Notre Dame promptly lost that lofty position in the poll, but inched back up to No. 17 nationally after demolishing Purdue in a 66-7 result that must have felt cathartic for the team and its fanbase.

Miami (OH) checks in at 0-2, yet to surpass 20 points in a game, ranking 133rd nationally in scoring output with just 11 points on average, and 134th in rushing. But the RedHawks can throw the ball, posting 292 yards per game, good for 29th in FBS.

What do the analytics predict for the matchup?

Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Miami compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Miami score prediction

As expected, the simulations strongly favor the Fighting Irish in this home matchup.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Miami by a projected score of 38 to 6 and to win the game by an expected 31.7 points.

The model gives the Irish a strong 98 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

Notre Dame is a 28 point favorite against Miami, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 43.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -5000 and for Miami at +2000 to win outright.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Notre Dame -28
• ND to win -5000
• Bet over 43.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also forecast the Irish will easily win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame comes out the expected winner in 96.9 percent of the computer's updated simulations.

That leaves the RedHawks as the projected winner in the remaining 3.1 percent of sims.

The model forecasts that Notre Dame will be 31.1 points better than Miami on the same field.

That's also enough to cover the 28 point spread.

Notre Dame will win 9.7 games this season and sits 11th nationally with a 37.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI metrics.

The models expect Miami to win 5.5 games this season with a 48.6 percent chance to play in a bowl.

Notre Dame vs. Miami (OH) schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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