Notre Dame vs. Navy football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert football model that picks winners offers a new prediction for Notre Dame vs. Navy in this Week 9 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Navy football prediction / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A college football rivalry that dates back nearly a century finds No. 12 Notre Dame facing off against No. 24 Navy on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the game from an expert analytical model that picks winners.

Notre Dame has won 5 straight games after a stunning loss at home to Northern Illinois, including 4 wins against Power Conference teams, averaging 41 points per game in those victories, and winning by an average of 30 points per game.

Navy is the third ranked team the Fighting Irish will play this season, undefeated through 6 games and sitting 4th nationally with nearly 45 points per game and with 275 rushing yards per game behind another characteristically dominant ground game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Notre Dame vs. Navy predictions

Despite the Midshipmen being undefeated, the simulations are giving a sizable edge to the Fighting Irish this week.

Notre Dame is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 91 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Navy as the expected winner in the remaining 9 percent of sims.

In total, the Fighting Irish come out ahead in 18,200 of the computer’s predictions, while the Midshipmen edge out ND in the other 1,800 index’s projections.

When calculating a margin of victory, the computers give the Irish a nearly three-touchdown advantage over their rivals.

Notre Dame is projected to be 20.8 points better than Navy on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be more than enough to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Notre Dame is a 12 point favorite against Navy, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -550 and for Navy at +380 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Bettors take a more generous view of the Midshipmen against the Fighting Irish, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Navy is getting a solid majority 72 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the score within the 12 point line in a loss.

The other 28 percent of wagers project Notre Dame will win the game and cover the dozen point spread.

Notre Dame vs. Navy future predictions

Notre Dame is ninth among FBS teams nationally with a 55.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s updated metrics.

That model gives the Irish a win total prediction of 10.2 games this season.

And that projection includes a 40.5 percent chance to win out the rest of the way, the best odds among 134 teams in college football.

Navy is third among AAC teams with an 8.4 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff, behind Tulane (8.9%) and favorite Army (25.2%).

The index gives the Midshipmen a win total projection of 9.1 games this season.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Vanderbilt

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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