Notre Dame vs. Navy score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Navy in this Week 9 college football game by the expert model that picks winners.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen score prediction / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

A college football classic that dates back almost a century kicks off this weekend as No. 24 Navy takes on No. 12 Notre Dame on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Navy is undefeated through six games and well within striking distance to earn contention as the Group of Five selection in the College Football Playoff this season, but it faces by far the biggest test of its season against the streaking Irish this week.

Notre Dame improved to 6-1 on the year thanks to a five-game win streak in which the team is winning by an average of 30 points and putting up 41 points per game, but comes into this matchup under slightly more pressure in the playoff race with a loss to Northern Illinois earlier this year that the selection committee will remember.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Fighting Irish and Midshipmen meet in this matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Navy compare in this Week 9 college football rivalry game.

Notre Dame vs. Navy score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Fighting Irish over the Midshipmen in this game.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Navy by a projected score of 36 to 17 and win the game by an expected margin of 19.5 points in the process.

The model gives the Fighting Irish a strong 89 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Notre Dame vs. Navy picks, odds

Notre Dame is a 13.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 50.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -580 and for Navy at +420 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Notre Dame -13.5
• Irish to win -580
• Bet over 50.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, who are giving the Midshipmen a shot against the Irish, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Navy is getting 69 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the line under 2 touchdowns in a loss.

The other 31 percent of wagers project that Notre Dame will win the game and cover the spread.

Notre Dame vs. Navy splits

Navy has dominated teams all season, winning its games by an average of 24.6 points per game.

That average has increased over the last three games, as the Midshipmen have been 28 points better than opponents in that span.

Notre Dame has been 22.3 points better than the opposition over its last three games, in victories over Louisville, Stanford, and Georgia Tech.

And the Fighting Irish have been 22.7 points better than opponents overall in 2024.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also give the Irish a big advantage over the Midshipmen.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 91 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Navy as the expected winner in the remaining 9 percent of sims.

Notre Dame is projected to be 20.7 points better than Navy on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Notre Dame vs. Navy future predictions

Notre Dame is ninth nationally among 134 FBS teams with a 55.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Fighting Irish a win total prediction of 10.2 games this season.

Navy is third among AAC teams with a 8.3 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, sitting third behind Tulane (10.3%) and conference leader Army (25%).

FPI gives the Midshipmen a win total projection of 9.1 games in ‘24.

How to watch Notre Dame vs. Navy

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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