Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Notre Dame and Navy renew this college football rivalry, with our updated prediction for this Week 9 game.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen Prediction / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

A college football rivalry nearly a century in the making kicks off this weekend as No. 24 Navy puts its perfect record on the line against No. 12 Notre Dame. Here’s what you should watch for in this critical matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Notre Dame has one very costly loss already on its resume and can ill afford another with its playoff hopes hanging in the balance, but it’s won 5 straight games by an average of 30 points.

Navy is undefeated through 6 games and riding high as it looks to tilt this rivalry back in its favor, winning just 1 game against the Irish in the last decade and four times in this century.

What can we expect as the Fighting Irish and Midshipmen reunite this weekend?

Here’s what you should watch for as Notre Dame and Navy renew their rivalry, along with our updated prediction for this Week 9 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction: What to watch

1. Navy’s offense. As expected, the Midshipmen are pounding the rock on the ground, averaging 275 yards per game, good for 4th in FBS, but quarterback Blake Horvath is also tops nationally in pass efficiency and yards per attempt, key to this team’s offensive turnaround, scoring nearly 4 touchdowns more per game than a year ago.

2. Red zone. Navy is perfect from scoring position (23 of 23) and 22 of those scores are touchdowns for a national-best 95.65 percent TD rate in the red area. Notre Dame is 13th in allowing 47 percent of teams to score touchdowns inside the 20, and the Midshipmen have held opponents out of the end zone 11 times in 19 tries.

3. Irish injuries. Notre Dame has allowed 10.8 points per game during its win streak, despite some costly absences in that time. Two starting blockers, two starting defensive linemen, and top cornerback Benjamin Morrison are all out, which could open up some holes in the trenches for Navy to exploit as it hopes to frustrate quarterback Riley Leonard’s mobility and build its own momentum on the ground.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models give the Fighting Irish a big advantage over the Midshipmen in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is expected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 90.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Navy as the expected winner in the remaining 9.1 percent of sims.

Notre Dame is projected to be 20.8 points better than Navy on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Notre Dame is a 13.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -104, Under -118).

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -580 and for Navy at +420 to win outright.

Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction: Who wins?

On paper, Navy’s defense looks formidable, holding its last 3 opponents to under 10 points, but that production came against overmatched opponents who don’t have Notre Dame’s offensive firepower.

Navy is just 92nd nationally in total defense, allowing nearly 388 total yards per game, and is 91st in FBS allowing 162 rushing yards per game for a 4.14 yard per carry average.

And while the Midshipmen rank 2nd nationally with 11.9 yards per pass attempt, they’re the second-least active passing team with just 14 attempts per game.

If the Irish can play up to their standard against the run -- allowing just 3 touchdowns on the ground all year, a 3.29 ypc average, and outflanking the Middies in time of possession by about a minute on average -- then they can effectively counter Navy’s strength as the game wears on.

It’s tempting to take the points when looking at Navy’s overall improvements, but Notre Dame boasts a cadre of playmakers who are an order of magnitude above what it’s seen so far.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Notre Dame wins 34-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

How to watch Notre Dame vs. Navy

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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