Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Notre Dame and Penn State meet in the College Football Playoff Orange Bowl semifinal, with our updated prediction for the game.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State football prediction / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A historic College Football Playoff semifinal kicks off at the Orange Bowl as Notre Dame and Penn State square off with a shot at the national championship game on the line. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction.

Fresh off a signature victory against SEC champion Georgia in the quarterfinal round, Notre Dame is just one step away from playing for its first national championship since 1988.

Penn State hasn’t hoisted the trophy since the 1986 season when Joe Paterno’s team got past Miami, and returns to title contention behind a strong defense and rushing attack.

What can we expect as the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish square off in South Florida?

Here’s what you should watch for as Notre Dame and Penn State square off in the College Football Playoff Orange Bowl semifinal, with our prediction for the game.

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Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction: What to watch

1. The big play. Whoever comes away with the long gainers in the passing game could end up winning this one, but neither of these teams exactly specialize in doing that.

Penn State has 15 passing gains of 30-plus yards, a figure that ranks 86th nationally, and is just 108th out of 134 FBS teams with 4 plays of 40-plus yards.

Notre Dame is 101st in total passing output, but is third-worst in the country with just four plays of at least 30 yards and eighth-worst with all of one gain of 40 yards or more.

When it comes to defending long plays, the Irish have a slight advantage.

Notre Dame is top 30 in the country by surrendering 46 plays of 30-plus yards, 12th in allowing 15 plays of 30 yards, and top 25 allowing eight gains of 40-plus yards.

Penn State is among the 30 best defenses when it comes to surrendering completions of 30 and 40 yards, but is 71st in allowing 56 gains of 20-plus yards to opponents.

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2. On the ground. What the Irish may lack throwing the ball, they’ve certainly made up for when working on the ground this season.

Notre Dame is No. 11 among 134 FBS teams by averaging more than 219 rushing yards per game on average and is fourth with 42 total rushing touchdowns on the year.

It’s fourth in the country with 11 ground gains of at least 40 yards and is one of eight teams with a 90-yard advance from a back.

But the Irish are going against a Penn State run defense that is among college football’s best.

That front seven rotation proved itself with a dominant performance against Boise State, holding Heisman Trophy finalist and the country’s most productive overall back Ashton Jeanty to a season-worst 3.5 yards per carry and just 104 yards with no touchdowns.

Penn State has held five opponents to under 75 rushing yards and allowed opponents to average just 3.1 yards per carry on average.

That’s good for eighth best in the country, and the 8 rushing touchdowns the Nittany Lions allowed this year are the third-fewest in FBS.

Penn State is no slouch rushing the ball itself, boasting a two-headed backfield led by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

Both average nearly 7 yards per carry every time they touch the ball and both went over 1,000 total yards.

And while they work behind a stout line that specializes in opening running lanes on the interior, that unit has struggled in pass protection during the Nittany Lions’ playoff run.

After being sacked just 11 times all year, quarterback Drew Allar has been brought down seven times already in two postseason appearances.

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3. Big injuries. Both teams come into the game dealing with injury concerns, and at positions involving high-impact players who are major contributors on both sides of the ball.

For Notre Dame, that’s running back Jeremiyah Love, the 1,000-plus yard rusher with 16 touchdowns who aggravated a knee injury in the quarterfinal game against Georgia.

All signs point to Love manning the Irish backfield against the Nittany Lions, as head coach Marcus Freeman indicated this week, but there are lingering questions about his being at 100 percent and any further exposure to injury.

For Penn State, there’s still some concern around star edge rusher Abdul Carter.

This year’s Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year exited the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal game with an apparent injury to his upper arm and shoulder area.

One of the best players in the country and a projected top 10 NFL Draft pick this spring, Carter leads the team with 11 sacks while adding 21.5 stops behind the line, forcing two fumbles, and breaking up three passes.

Penn State’s pass rush didn’t look quite as inspired against the Broncos after Carter’s departure, but this is still a strong unit that can bring heat off the edges and through the interior.

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Who is favored?

Notre Dame is a narrow 1.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the matchup (Over -102, Under -120).

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -120 and for Penn State at +100 to win outright.

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Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction: Who wins?

Two evenly matched teams, strong on the lines of scrimmage, each fielding potent rushing attacks, both within striking distance of a national championship.

Both offenses are productive, but not flashy. Notre Dame is one of the country’s best collective ground offenses, but Penn State fields arguably the nation’s two best individual backs.

Penn State’s defensive strong suit is its front rotation, while Notre Dame’s is its secondary.

That back seven is responsible for 31 takeaways, the most in college football, a major component in the ND defense limiting explosive plays to opponents.

But the Irish offensive strength plays directly into the Nittany Lions’ defensive strength.

And Notre Dame doesn’t have the passing game to complement its efficiency on the ground the way Penn State does, while the Lions have more vertical skill threats who can chip away at the Irish defensive backs.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Penn State wins 23-20
• In an upset
• And hits the under

More ... Notre Dame vs. Penn State score prediction by football model

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And ... Notre Dame vs. Penn State schedule today

How to watch the 2025 Orange Bowl Semifinal Game

When: Thurs., Jan. 9
Where: Miami Gardens, Fla.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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