Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Notre Dame vs. Penn State in the College Football Playoff semifinal round game from an expert football model that simulates games.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State football prediction, picks / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Notre Dame and Penn State are set to square off in the College Football Playoff Orange Bowl semifinal game. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Notre Dame made a statement by dominating SEC champion Georgia by a 23-10 count in the quarterfinal round behind another strong defensive performance and is seeking its first national championship since the 1988 season.

Penn State moved past Boise State in a 31-14 result in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal, holding Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty to just 104 yards and no touchdowns.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Fighting Irish over the Nittany Lions, but by a narrow margin that suggests this game could go either way.

Notre Dame is the slim favorite according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 58.7 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

And while Penn State wasn’t projected to win the matchup, it did come out on top of the Irish in the other 41.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Fighting Irish prevailed in 11,740 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Nittany Lions edged out ND in the other 8,260 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

When taking an average of the computer’s 20,000 simulations of the matchup, Notre Dame is projected to be just 1.7 points better than Penn State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Irish to cover the spread against the Nittany Lions.

That’s because Notre Dame is a 2.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 44.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -134 and for Penn State at +112 to win outright.

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What the bettors are saying

A majority of bets being placed are putting more confidence in the Fighting Irish to handle the Nittany Lions, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Notre Dame is getting 63 percent of bets to win by at least a field goal and cover this narrow point spread in a victory and advance to the national championship game.

The other 37 percent of wagers project that Penn State will either beat the Fighting Irish outright in an upset, or keep the margin under 3 points in a loss.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How to watch the 2024 Orange Bowl semifinal game

When: Thurs., Jan. 9
Where: Miami Gardens, Fla.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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