Notre Dame vs. Penn State score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Penn State in the College Football Playoff Orange Bowl semifinal game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State score prediction / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Notre Dame and Penn State are set for the College Football Playoff Orange Bowl semifinal with a shot at the national title matchup on the line. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

Notre Dame earned a right to play in the semifinal after hounding SEC champion Georgia by a 23-10 count in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal round behind another stout defensive performance and boasting one of college football’s most productive rushing attacks.

Defense was the name of the game for the Fighting Irish against the Bulldogs, sacking quarterback Gunner Stockton four times behind a motivated pass rush.

That unit came into the matchup ranked second nationally by allowing just 13.8 points per game on average, and surrendered just a field goal in the first half against Georgia.

And after some concern around the status of running back Jeremiyah Love, it appears the Irish will have their top rusher on the field after he sustained a knee injury the last time out.

Love is the engine behind Notre Dame’s 11th ranked rushing attack, amassing more than 1,00 yards and scoring 16 times. Star quarterback Riley Leonard has rushed for another 15 touchdowns.

Penn State got past Boise State in a 31-14 result in the Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal and play some balanced offense and field one of the nation’s most dominant defensive fronts, although there is some concern around the status of star edge rusher Abdul Carter, who was injured last time out.

Carter exited the Boise State game with his left arm and shoulder heavily wrapped, but the current belief is that he’ll be ready to man the front seven against the Irish in the semifinal.

That’s a key development for the Nittany Lions, whose pass rush looked less inspired without him in the rotation, but is among the very best at generating pressure when he’s on the field.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions meet in this historic postseason matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Penn State compare in the College Football Playoff Orange Bowl semifinal game.

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Notre Dame vs. Penn State score prediction

The model expects a close game between the Irish and the Lions. A very close game.

SP+ predicts that Penn State and Notre Dame will play to an effective 25 to 25 draw, according to the model, but with the Nittany Lions getting a very slight edge, projected to win the game by an expected margin of just 0.3 points.

The model gives Penn State a narrow 51 percent shot to beat the Fighting Irish outright, while Notre Dame has more than a fighting chance at 49 percent.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 392-365-9 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage.

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Orange Bowl odds, how to pick the game

Notre Dame is a 1.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -102, Under -120).

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -120 and for Penn State at +100 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Notre Dame -1.5
• Penn State to win +100
• Bet over 45.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the majority of bettors, a plurality of whom are expecting the Fighting Irish to handle the Nittany Lions, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Notre Dame is getting 62 percent of bets to cover the narrow point spread in a victory and advance to the national championship game.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Penn State will either beat the Irish outright in an upset, or keep the game to a single point in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models are favoring the Fighting Irish to get past the Nittany Lions.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is the narrow favorite according to the index, coming out on top in the majority 58.7 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

Penn State wasn’t projected to win outright, but it came out as the presumptive winner in the other 41.3 percent of the computer’s simulations.

That narrow margin between the teams was also represented in the computer’s score prediction.

Notre Dame is projected to be just 1.7 points better than Penn State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast when taking an average of the computer’s 20,000 simulations.

More ... Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction: What the analytics say

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How to watch the 2025 Orange Bowl semifinal game

When: Thurs., Jan. 9
Where: Miami Gardens, Fla.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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