Notre Dame vs. Purdue score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Purdue in this Week 3 college football game.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Purdue Boilermakers Prediction / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

One of college football's in-state rivalry games returns to the field this weekend as No. 18 Notre Dame looks to recover from a shocking loss on the road against Purdue in this Week 3 matchup on Saturday.

We've seen the Fighting Irish and Boilermakers on the same field just once in the last decade, but this rivalry will be played every season at least through 2028, and suddenly this one meets a lot more for the Golden Domers than they likely anticipated when the season began.

That's after Northern Illinois made history by becoming the first MAC team to beat an AP top-five ranked opponent after smothering the Irish under the eyes of Touchdown Jesus last weekend, sinking Notre Dame to a 1-1 mark and putting its playoff hopes in peril.

Projected to be one of the Big Ten's worst teams, Purdue showed out in a 49-0 victory over Indiana State in its opener, amassing 583 yards as Hudson Card went 24 of 25 passing for 273 and 4 touchdowns, and the Boilermakers could pose a threat running the ball.

What do the experts make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model for a preview of how Notre Dame and Purdue compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Purdue score prediction

The models currently favor the Fighting Irish to get back on track, but in a close game.

SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Purdue by a projected score of 31 to 20 and to win the game by an expected 11.2 points.

The model gives the Irish a 76 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a 51.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Notre Dame is a 9.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 45.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -420 to win outright and for Purdue at +320.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Notre Dame -9.5
• ND to win -420
• Bet over 45.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also suggest the Irish will win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame is expected to win the game in 73.9 percent of the computer's updated simulations, while Purdue comes out the projected winner in the remaining 26.1 percent of sims.

The index forecasts that Notre Dame will be 9.9 points better than Purdue on the same field, just enough to cover this spread.

Purdue is expected to win 5 games this season and has a 38.2 percent chance to become bowl eligible, according to the index's latest projections.

Notre Dame is projected to win 8.7 games with a 23.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame vs. Purdue game time

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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