Notre Dame vs. USC football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Notre Dame vs. USC by an analytical football model that simulates games.

Notre Dame vs. USC football prediction 2024 / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

One of college football’s greatest rivalry games kicks off from the Coliseum as USC welcomes playoff hopeful Notre Dame. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

Notre Dame is a virtual certainty for the College Football Playoff, but can’t afford any slip ups in the season finale with other teams waiting in the wings to take advantage of late-season chaos.

USC only just became bowl eligible last week with a win over rival UCLA and has won two straight games, but Lincoln Riley’s offense is averaging under 30 points per game this season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Notre Dame vs. USC prediction

As expected, the models are favoring the Fighting Irish over the Trojans in this rivalry game.

Notre Dame is a big road favorite, coming out on top in 70.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves USC as the presumptive winner in the remaining 29.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Irish come out on top in 14,180 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Trojans edge out ND in the other 5,820 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Notre Dame is projected to be 7.9 points better than USC on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Irish to cover the spread against the Trojans.

That’s because Notre Dame is a 7.5 point favorite against USC, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

The book set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -265 and for USC at +215 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A big majority of bettors expect the Fighting Irish will cover the spread against the Trojans, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Notre Dame is getting 74 percent of bets to win the game and cover the line.

The other 26 percent of wagers project USC will either win outright in an upset, or keep the final margin to a touchdown or under in a loss.

Notre Dame vs. USC future projections

Notre Dame is seventh nationally with an 85.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

And if they get in, the Irish have a fighter’s chance to win the national championship.

The model gives ND an 11.4 percent chance to win the title, ranking fourth nationally in that category, according to the computer’s projections.

Ohio State is first in FBS with a 22.2 percent chance to win it all, while Texas (21.3%) is second and Georgia (11.6%) is third, according to FPI.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Notre Dame vs. USC

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Los Angeles, Calif.

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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