Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Indiana Hoosiers prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Ohio State and Indiana meet in a late-season matchup loaded with College Football Playoff implications, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State vs. Indiana Prediction 2024 / Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What you should watch for as No. 5 Indiana hits the road against No. 2 Ohio State in this top-five battle, with our updated prediction for the game.

Just about everything is on the line in this one, as both Big Ten rivals look to take either a major step towards College Football Playoff eligibility, or potential elimination with a loss.

Ohio State sits in third place in the Big Ten standings thanks to that 1-point loss at Oregon earlier this year and wants revenge against the Ducks in the conference championship game.

Standing in the Buckeyes’ way is an undefeated Indiana team that has won 10 games for the first time ever and playing some of the country’s most productive offense, but hoping to impress the selection committee, which is less than enthused with the Hoosiers’ 106th-ranked strength of schedule.

What can we expect as the Hoosiers take on the Buckeyes in this Big Ten clash over the weekend?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Ohio State and Indiana meet in this Week 13 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction: What you need to know

1. Battle at the line. Ohio State is down two key blockers, as left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin are both out for the season with injuries. 

That’s a matchup to watch against an Indiana front seven that ranks 13th in FBS in negative plays created this season, racking up 7.3 tackles for loss per game.

For its part, Ohio State is among the best groups nationally in warding off that pressure, ranking 6th in the country surrendering just 3.4 stops behind the line per game.

2. Strength vs. strength. It’s no secret that Indiana has been putting up points this year, coming into this week ranked No. 2 in the country with 43.9 points per game, behind just Miami. That figure drops by less than a point on average when playing on the road.

But the Buckeyes have proven brilliant at preventing other teams from scoring this season, ranking No. 1 in FBS by allowing just 10.3 points from opponents, a number that falls to about a touchdown allowed on average when playing at home.

3. Get to the QB. Sure, the Hoosiers can score plenty of points, but it’s their defense that could make the bigger impact in the game, especially when generating pressure against Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, whose mobility and improvisational skills are still an open question.

That vulnerability has resulted in turnovers at times this season, as he ranks fifth among quarterbacks with 7 fumbles and has accuracy problems when forced to move in the pocket.

Howard hasn’t displayed consistent speed to get away from edge rushers, and he could have a similar issue against Indiana’s Mikail Kamara, who leads the Big Ten with 9.5 sacks.

Ohio State’s quarterback has dealt with persistent accuracy concerns when forced to move around and, given the Buckeyes’ newfound injuries on the line, that could allow Indiana to design blitzes that bring pressure through the interior and force Howard to the outside and into some hurried throws.

What the analytics say

Most football computer models expect the Buckeyes to handle the Hoosiers in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Ohio State is the big favorite in the game according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 73.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Indiana as the presumptive winner in the remaining 26.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 9 points better than Indiana on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Ohio State is a 10.5 point favorite against Indiana, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -430 and for Indiana at +330 to win outright.

Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction: Who wins?

Three times this year, Indiana has played a game that analysts called the biggest test of its perfect season, but the Buckeyes do actually represent a marked talent discrepancy from anyone the Hoosiers have seen yet.

And while Indiana is a solid 8-2 against the spread this season, the best mark among Power Four teams, Ohio State is the first ranked team it will play, and IU is 3-9 ATS against ranked competition over the last three seasons, the third-worst record in the country.

Indiana’s worst offensive performance of the season came against Michigan, which was perhaps uncoincidentally the best defense it played to that point, and the Buckeyes are even better at bringing pressure up front and locking down throwing lanes on the back end.

The Hoosiers will get some big gainers through the air and bother Howard in the pocket, but don’t have the tacklers to contend with the variety that Ohio State can throw at them.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ohio State wins 36-24
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Ohio State vs. Indiana score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Indiana vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Columbus, Ohio

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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