Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Ohio State hosts Michigan in The Game, with our updated prediction for college football's most intense rivalry.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction 2024 / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

College football’s greatest rivalry kicks off this weekend as Ohio State welcomes Michigan in the 2024 edition of The Game, once again loaded with postseason implications. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State just needs to get past the Wolverines in order to clinch the other half of the Big Ten Championship Game, where it would have a chance to avenge its one loss of the year, when it fell by a point against conference newcomer Oregon.

Standing in the way is a Michigan team that hasn’t quite held up the standard established by Jim Harbaugh during its three-game win streak against the Buckeyes, but still poses a threat.

The defending national champions are just 6-5 and play some of college football’s most dismal offense, but can still bring some heat on the line of scrimmage and will be plenty motivated in this game with a chance to spoil Ohio State’s postseason hopes and make it four straight in this series.

It’s the game to end all games, the border war that really was a border war. Literally: back in the 19th century, these two states were involved in a border dispute that got the President involved, creating an animosity that has endured ever since in the form of this intense rivalry game.

What can we expect as the Buckeyes welcome the Wolverines in The Game this weekend?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Ohio State squares off against Michigan in this Week 14 college football rivalry classic.

Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction: What to watch for

1. At the line. Michigan’s principal team strength this season remains its physical defensive line play, a rotation that is the best in the country at generating a pass rush, according to Pro Football Focus numbers, and will bring some serious heat against a Buckeyes protection unit that is still down two of its best blockers, at left tackle and center.

A line that includes game-wreckers like Josaiah Stewart off the edge and Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant on the interior will be a credible matchup threat for Ohio State.

It’s critical for OSU to plug any rushing lanes that could let Michigan’s defenders get a line on Will Howard or the Buckeyes’ lead backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.

Ohio State’s quarterback has dealt with persistent accuracy concerns when forced to move around and, given the Buckeyes’ newfound injuries on the line, that could allow Michigan to design pressures that bring heat through the interior and force Howard to the outside and into some hurried throws.

2. On the ground. It’s not a state secret that Michigan’s offense lives or dies with the run. It carries the ball on almost 59 percent of its snaps this year, and third-year linebacker-turned-tailback Kalel Mullings is the engine for this backfield.

Mullings has rushed for 832 total yards this season and has 11 of the Wolverines’ 18 rushing touchdowns.

He’s running into an Ohio State rush defense that ranks No. 3 nationally, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry and is fourth surrendering only 8 rushing touchdowns all season.

And the Buckeyes have some good precedent facing the Big Ten’s best rushing teams, holding Iowa, which is first in the conference on the ground, to just 226 total yards and one touchdown.

3. The Three Werewolves. That’s the name given by Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale when he christened Ohio State’s wide receiver trio of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate, three of the nation’s most gifted targets.

Smith leads the way for Ohio State, with 52 receptions for 899 yards while averaging more than 17 yards per catch and has 9 touchdown grabs this season.

Egbuka is not far behind, with 56 catches for 692 yards and another 9 scores, while Tate has 525 yards and 4 touchdown receptions.

All three comprise the No. 2 passing efficiency offense, and should find some generous running lanes against a Michigan pass defense that isn’t generating a ton of pressure against opposing receivers, and will be without star defensive back Will Johnson as he deals with a toe injury.

Who is favored?

Ohio State is an 18.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 42.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -1800 and for Michigan at +920 to win outright.

Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction: Who wins?

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has heard all the noise about how his team has underperformed not just in important games, but in this game, in particular.

Now, with the Wolverines quite clearly in the midst of a down year and playing some of the worst offense in college football, this is the moment when the Buckeyes have to strike, and strike hard.

The tools are there on offense, working behind one of the country’s most efficient quarterbacks, who is dealing to some of the most dynamic receiver talent you’ll see anywhere.

Michigan’s best shot is to go crazy rushing the quarterback, really batter away at Ohio State’s blockers and wreak some serious havoc that forces Howard into some early mistakes.

Because if it can’t, the Buckeyes have the speed and the bodies in the trenches defensively who can make this ugly.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ohio State wins 38-13
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Ohio State vs. Michigan score prediction by expert model

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College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

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How to watch Michigan vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Columbus, Ohio

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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