Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Tennessee Volunteers prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to expect as Ohio State welcomes Tennessee in this first round College Football Playoff matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Tennessee Volunteers football game prediction 2024 / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Here’s what you should watch for as Ohio State welcomes Tennessee in this historic first round College Football Playoff matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Tennessee played to a 10-2 record this season, with a signature win over Alabama, but losses to unranked Arkansas and playoff hopeful Georgia, and is in position to make a run for its first national championship since the 1998 season.

Ohio State appeared in line to play for the Big Ten title, but a stunning loss to rival Michigan, the school’s fourth-straight despite being a big favorite this year, kept it out of contention, putting head coach Ryan Day under some pressure to make a postseason run.

What can we expect as the Volunteers venture into Big Ten country to take on the Buckeyes?

Here’s what you should watch for as Tennessee and Ohio State meet in this historic first round College Football Playoff game, with our updated prediction.

Ohio State vs. Tennessee prediction: What to watch for

1. At the line. The matchup that could decide the whole thing will come when Tennessee’s front seven goes up against the Buckeyes’ offensive line, and it doesn’t appear to be close.

Ohio State lost its left tackle and center to season-ending injuries, opening up two possibly huge lanes for the Vols’ expert pass rushers to break through and rattle OSU’s offensive momentum.

That line wasn’t in good form against Michigan, allowing 4 tackles for loss and 13 quarterback pressures, and while the Wolverines are no slouch up front, Tennessee is another animal entirely.

If the Vols are able to consistently generate pressure at the line, they could force the Buckeyes into some hurried offensive decisions and keep them from running the ball and sustain long drives.

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2. In the red zone. Ohio State and Tennessee are both among college football’s most productive teams when working inside the 20-yard line, on offense and defense, respectively.

Ohio State comes in ranked fourth nationally by scoring touchdowns on 78 percent of its red zone opportunities, but it’s going against a Vols defense that allows TDs on 44 percent of chances.

But the Buckeyes could have an edge when defending the red area, letting opponents score on 55 percent of drives, the second-fewest in the country.

And while the Vols score points on nearly 82 percent of their red zone drives, that number falls to 61 percent when measuring touchdowns alone, a figure that ranks a mere 65th in FBS.

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3. On the ground. You won’t completely stop the Vols’ offense by stopping the run, but you’ll go a long way if lead tailback Dylan Sampson can have his momentum curtailed right away.

The trouble is, Sampson has been hard to stop, ranking seventh nationally among backs by amassing 927 rushing yards, or 62 percent of his total, before contact, according to Pro Football Focus’ calculations.

Tennessee’s back doesn’t break off a ton of big runs, with just 5 carries of more than 30 yards, but he punishes tacklers at the point of attack with a battery of hard moderate gains that wear down opponents who aren’t as conditioned as he is.

Sampson’s season-low in rushing was 92 yards against the Sooners, and he averages two dozen carries for 131 rushing yards per game against Power Four competition.

Ohio State is seventh in FBS in total rush defense this season, allowing just under 97 yards per game and is fifth in surrendering 2.85 yards per carry, but its strong front seven rotation hasn’t faced a ground attack as consistent and physical as what Tennessee will offer.

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Who is favored?

Ohio State is a 7.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for this postseason matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -260 and for Tennessee at +210 to win outright.

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Ohio State vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins?

SEC teams dominating in these postseason showcases against Big Ten opponents just seems to be the order of the day, and until proven otherwise, we’re sticking with that formula.

And the Buckeyes have been burned more than most in this situation, going 2-13 against SEC opposition in postseason games, including an 0-3 mark under head coach Ryan Day.

Ohio State has a solid front seven that has generated plenty of negative plays and a rotation of elite wide receiver skill that can break open passing lanes and change the game on a single play.

But in order for those all-star receivers to break free, they need pristine protection and a quarterback who has time to distribute to his targets.

Ohio State had no answer against a Michigan team that literally couldn’t throw the football and everyone in the stadium knew they would run the ball.

And what the Vols have in the backfield is an order of magnitude above what the Wolverines were able to put on the ground.

Ohio State’s offense can sputter pretty badly if quarterback Will Howard is placed under consistent duress, and that just happens to be the Volunteers’ strong suit.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Tennessee wins 27-24
• In an upset
• And hits the over

More ... Ohio State vs. Tennessee score prediction by football model

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How to watch Tennessee vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Dec. 21
Where: Columbus, Ohio

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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