Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Ohio State vs. Indiana in this Week 13 college football game from an analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State vs. Indiana football prediction / Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A major late-season battle between top-five teams kicks off this weekend as No. 2 Ohio State hosts No. 5 Indiana on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State moved to 6-1 in Big Ten play and needs to win this game in order to move into second place in the conference standings and inch closer towards the league championship game.

Indiana comes in behind its first-ever 10-0 record and hoping to impress the selection committee and prove it deserves that lofty position in the College Football Playoff rankings.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Indiana predictions

So far, the models are siding fairly strongly with the Buckeyes over the Hoosiers.

Ohio State is the current favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 73.2 percent of the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Indiana as the expected winner in the remaining 26.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out on top in 14,640 simulations of the game, while the Hoosiers edged out Ohio State in the 5,360 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory for the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 9 points better than Indiana on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is a 13.5 point favorite against Indiana, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -520 and for Indiana at +385 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Hoosiers will give the Buckeyes a challenge, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Indiana is getting 63 percent of bets to win outright in an upset, or to keep the margin under two touchdowns in a loss.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win and game and cover the big spread.

Ohio State vs. Indiana future projections

So far, the Hoosiers are out ahead of the Buckeyes in the Power Index’s calculations.

Indiana is second among Big Ten teams with a 96.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Hoosiers a win total prediction of 11.4 games this season.

Ohio State is right behind IU with a 93.6 percent chance to make the playoff, according to the model.

And the Buckeyes will win 11.1 games in ‘24, according to the projections.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 13

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. Miami
9. Ole Miss
10. Georgia
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Colorado
17. Clemson
18. South Carolina
19. Army
20. Tulane
21. Arizona State
22. Iowa State
23. Missouri
24. UNLV
25. Illinois

How to watch Indiana vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Columbus, Ohio

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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