Ohio State vs. Indiana score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Indiana in this Week 13 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State vs. Indiana score prediction 2024 / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A major late-season battle is set for Saturday as No. 2 Ohio State welcomes undefeated, No. 5 Indiana. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State moved to 6-1 in Big Ten play but still sits in third place in the standings thanks to that 1-point loss at Oregon earlier this year, and this game will determine second place in the league.

Standing in the Buckeyes’ way is the surprise team in college football this season: undefeated Indiana, playing its first-ever 10-win season behind the nation’s second-ranked scoring offense under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen as the Hoosiers take on the Buckeyes in this Big Ten football clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Ohio State and Indiana compare in this Week 13 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Indiana score prediction

It appears the models are siding rather strongly with the Buckeyes over the Hoosiers in this one, and by a double-digit margin.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Indiana by a projected score of 31 to 19 and to win the game by an expected margin of 12.4 points in the win.

The model gives the Buckeyes a strong 78 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Ohio State vs. Indiana odds, how to pick the game

Ohio State is a 13.5 point favorite against Indiana, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -500 and for Indiana at +375 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Indiana +13.5
• Ohio State to win -500
• Bet under 51.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a plurality of bettors, who expect the Hoosiers will challenge the Buckeyes in this crucial test.

Indiana is getting 63 percent of bets to either pull off the upset and take down the Bucks, or to keep the game under two touchdowns in a loss.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread in the process.

Ohio State vs. Indiana splits

Both these Big Ten rivals are among the most dominant teams in the country when it comes to average scoring margin this season.

Ohio State ranks No. 1 nationally by averaging out 27.5 points better than the competition so far this year, and the Hoosiers aren’t far behind.

Indiana is 3rd in FBS in playing 25.2 points better than its opponents on average in 2024.

Those margins have diverged somewhat over the last three games, in Ohio State’s favor.

In that time, the Buckeyes have played 25.3 points better than its competition, but Indiana isn’t far off, averaging 18.7 points better than its opponents in that span.

OSU has another slight advantage when considering the venue.

At home this season, the Buckeyes have been 35.7 points better than opponents, while the Hoosiers have averaged out 27.7 points better than the competition when they play on the road.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football prediction models also favor the Buckeyes over the Hoosiers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is the current favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 73.2 percent of the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Indiana as the expected winner in the remaining 26.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out on top in 14,640 simulations of the game, while the Hoosiers edged out Ohio State in the 5,360 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory for the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 9 points better than Indiana on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How to watch Indiana vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Columbus, Ohio

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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