Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Ohio State hosts Iowa in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Ohio State vs. Iowa game prediction / Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Big Ten football returns to the Horseshoe this weekend as No. 3 Ohio State is back in Columbus in the conference home opener against Iowa in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s make our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State plowed through its non-conference slate and got past Michigan State in the Big Ten opener last week behind its arsenal of skill weapons that includes freshman phenom wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, put together an offense that ranks 5th nationally with almost 49 points per game.

That attack lines up against an Iowa defense that is 15th in FBS in points allowed and 18th in yards surrendered per game, ranking 4th in rush defense. The Hawkeyes are just 1 point away from being undefeated in this game, and is 1-0 in conference play thus far.

What can we expect in the matchup?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Ohio State hosts Iowa in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction: What to watch

1. At the line. As the Hawkeyes still lack any kind of vertical game, it’s all on Kaleb Johnson and the ground attack so far. He ranks 2nd among FBS backs with 685 rushing yards this season and is 3rd nationally with 9 touchdowns working behind Iowa’s characteristically expert blocking.

Ohio State is no slouch against the run. It ranks 3rd in the country by allowing just 61.75 yards per game from opposing rushers, a single touchdown, and is surrendering only 1.84 yards per carry. Those averages should inflate against Iowa’s ground game this week, but it’s a good starting point.

2. Going deep. Freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has more than played up to expectation, scoring 6 touchdowns on 364 yards, but Iowa’s secondary will present him and Ohio State’s other blue-chip receivers with a first real test. 

Sebastian Castro is one of the Hawkeyes’ most productive pass defenders, recording 17 stops and forcing a fumble this season, and cornerback Jermari Harris leads the team with 2 interceptions.

And while Iowa is still strong against explosive plays, allowing just 11 plays of 20-plus yards, the group does have more of a tendency to allow big plays than Iowa defenses of the past, in the first 3 games allowing 3 plays of 50-plus yards, more than all of last season. 

So, while these backs are disciplined in closing down throwing lanes and limiting gains, they can be beat, and the Buckeyes’ receivers are just the group to do it.

3. Test Iowa up front. The strength of Iowa is defense, and the strength of the defense is the front seven, allowing less than 100 yards rushing in all 4 games and it’s 1 of 2 teams to allow no rushing touchdowns this season.

Defensive tackle Aaron Graves leads the team with 3 sacks and ends Ethan Hackett, Max Llewllyn and Brian Allen are menacing rushers who can regularly create negative plays. 

Linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson have the closing speed and coverage discipline to limit gains on the ground and close down mid-range passing options.

Ohio State is 14th in FBS in rushing behind TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, but neither scored a touchdown and combined for just 123 yards rushing last week against a decent Michigan State front.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models project an easy victory for the Buckeyes over the Hawkeyes.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is a strong favorite, projected to win the game in 90 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Iowa as the expected winner in the remaining 10 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 19.6 points better than Iowa on the same field, in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Ohio State is an 18.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -1000 and for Iowa at +700 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bets currently project the Hawkeyes will keep this one close, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A decent majority of bettors -- 62 percent of them -- expect Iowa will either win in an upset, or more likely, to keep the game within the generous point spread.

The remaining 38 percent of bets expect Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread.

Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction

It’s cliche at this point to say that Iowa plays strong defense, but this front seven is definitely a force to be reckoned with as Ohio State looks to protect its backfield and run the ball.

Iowa has the bodies and the discipline to credibly test the Buckeyes’ protection on the edges, close down their interior running lanes, and back up its pressure with a linebacker rotation that can derail gains and throw opposing offenses off schedule, especially on third down.

But while Ohio State faces its toughest test against Iowa’s defenders, it’s also true that Iowa’s defense will face its toughest test against the Buckeyes’ skill threats.

The Iowa defense will keep this close early on, but Smith, Egbuka, Carnell Tate, and Ohio State’s backs will ultimately break through as the Hawkeye tacklers ultimately wear down as the offense once again fails to help them on other end by scoring some points.

Not to mention, the Iowa passing game is still, while improved, not a realistic threat against the Buckeyes’ mid-range and deeper field defenders, not with Caleb Downs flying around everywhere.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ohio State wins 38-14
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Ohio State vs. Iowa score prediction by expert model

How to watch Iowa at Ohio State

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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