Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Ohio State vs. Iowa by the football model that picks winners.

Ohio State vs. Iowa football prediction / Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 3 Ohio State returns home from its Big Ten opener to take on Iowa in a battle of rivals both at 1-0 in conference play in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday.

Ohio State ranks top-five nationally in scoring offense and defense, and is working behind an attack that is top-15 in both rushing and passing through four games.

Iowa is 10th in FBS in rushing production, but the vertical offense is still struggling, coming into the game ranked 124th among 134 teams nationally in passing output.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Iowa predictions

So far, the models are expecting another big win for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State is projected to win the game in the majority 89.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Iowa as the expected winner in the remaining 10.3 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 19.6 points better than Iowa on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is a 20.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 44.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -1400 and for Iowa at +800 to win outright.

A majority of bets are predicting Iowa will make this a closer game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

More than 66 percent of bettors are expecting the Hawkeyes will keep the game within the point spread.

And the remaining 34 percent of wagers expect Ohio State to win the game and cover the spread.

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams with an 84.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.3 games, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Iowa a 4.7 percent shot at the playoff and a win total projection of 7.9 games.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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