Ohio State vs. Iowa score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Iowa in this Week 6 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Iowa score prediction by expert football model / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Two teams perfect in Big Ten play meet on the gridiron this weekend as No. 3 Ohio State plays host to Iowa in college football’s Week 6 action. Let’s take a look at the updated predictions for the game by the expert model that picks winners.

Ohio State is still perfect through 4 games, ranking top-10 nationally in scoring offense and defense, ranking No. 1 in FBS in the latter category, and is 14th in the country in both rushing and passing output behind a talented offense full of elite skill players.

Iowa is 1 point away from undefeated after a loss to rival Iowa State three weeks ago and most recently emerged victorious against Minnesota in its Big Ten opener, ranking 10th in FBS in rushing production, but still looking for answers throwing the ball, where it’s 124th nationally.

What do the experts think of this week’s matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Iowa compare in this game, with an updated prediction. 

Ohio State vs. Iowa score prediction

As expected, the simulations favor the Buckeyes in their Big Ten home opener.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Iowa by a projected score of 29 to 12 and to win the game by an expected 17.2 points overall.

The model gives the Buckeyes a strong 86 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

Ohio State vs. Iowa odds

Ohio State is a 20 point favorite against Iowa, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel listed the total at 44.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -1600 and for Iowa at +900 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Iowa +20
• Ohio State to win -1600
• Bet under 44.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Buckeyes to win at home.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 89.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Iowa as the expected winner in the remaining 10.4 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 19.6 points better than Iowa on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that also wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the point spread.

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams with an 84.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.3 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Iowa a 4.6 percent shot at the playoff and a win total projection of 7.8 games.

More ... Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction: What the analytics say

How to watch Iowa vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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