Ohio State vs. Marshall score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Marshall in this Week 4 college football game.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Marshall Thundering Herd Prediction / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Coming off a bye week, No. 3 Ohio State returns to the Horseshoe having outscored opponents 108 to 6 heading into a matchup against Marshall in college football's Week 4 action on Saturday.

Marshall played close against Power conference team Virginia Tech last week, keeping the game competitive until the second half of an eventual 31-14 loss, ranking 36th nationally by averaging 203 rushing yards per game.

Ohio State boasts college football's best 1-2 punch on the ground, with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson both averaging over 7 yards per carry, while freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has looked the part as the No. 1 overall 2024 recruit, scoring 3 times off 11 receptions.

What do the analytics predict for the matchup this weekend?

For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Marshall compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Marshall score prediction

As expected, the simulations currently favor the Buckeyes to take care of business.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Marshall by a projected score of 45 to 4 and to win the game by an expected 40.1 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes a near-consensus 99 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Ohio State vs. Marshall point spread

Ohio State is a 39.5 point favorite against Marshall, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 52.5 points in the game.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ohio State -39.5
• Bet under 52.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also expect the Buckeyes to dominate at home.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State comes out as the expected winner in the majority 96.9 percent of the computer's updated simulations.

That leaves Marshall as the projected winner in the remaining 3.1 percent of sims.

Ohio State will be 31.6 points better than Marshall on the same field, according to the FPI models.

That wouldn't be enough for the Buckeyes to cover this big line, however.

Ohio State ranks first among Big Ten teams with a 78.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.1 games this season, according to the FPI metrics.

That model gives Marshall a 1.5 percent shot at the playoff and a projected 6.9 wins this season.

Ohio State vs. Marshall schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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