Ohio State vs. Michigan football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Ohio State vs. Michigan by a football model that simulates games.

Ohio State vs. Michigan football prediction for The Game 2024 / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

College football’s greatest rivalry kicks off this weekend from Columbus, as The Game pits Ohio State against Michigan on Saturday. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

Ohio State moved closer to College Football Playoff contention after handing Indiana its first loss, and in dominant fashion, and just needs to beat the Wolverines to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game.

Michigan has owned the last three editions of this rivalry, but the transition from Jim Harbaugh’s national title team to Sherrone Moore’s 6-5 debut leaves this program with just a chance to spoil its arch-rival’s postseason position this weekend.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Michigan predictions

The computer models are siding very strongly with Ohio State over Michigan in the 2024 edition of The Game.

Ohio State comes out ahead in 91.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the expected winner in the remaining 8.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes come out on top in 18,380 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Wolverines edge out OSU in the other 1,620 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 21.3 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current capacity, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be just enough for the Buckeyes to cover the big spread in this game.

That’s because Ohio State is a 20.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book set the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -2800 and for Michigan at +1160 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors expect the Wolverines will keep it close against the Buckeyes, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Michigan is getting 51 percent of the bets to either win outright in an upset or to keep the margin under 3 touchdowns in a loss.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win and cover the big spread.

Ohio State vs. Michigan future projections

Ohio State is second nationally and among Big Ten teams with a 99.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

Oregon sits atop all 134 FBS teams with a 99.9 percent chance to make the playoff, and is the favorite to emerge as the No. 1 overall seed.

But the Buckeyes are No. 1 in the country with a 22.2 percent chance to win the national championship, according to the models.

Texas is second at 21.3 percent and Georgia is third at 11.6 percent.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Michigan vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Columbus, Ohio

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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