Ohio State vs. Michigan score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Michigan in The Game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State vs. Michigan score prediction 2024 / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Game returns to Columbus with major postseason implications as Ohio State looks to end a three-year losing streak to Michigan and move ahead in the College Football Playoff picture. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State is coming off a signature victory over undefeated Indiana and just needs to get past the Wolverines in order to clinch a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon, which handed the Buckeyes their only loss, by a single point back in October.

Michigan is a shell of its national champion self, falling to 6-5 in head coach Sherrone Moore’s first season, but can still pack a punch at the line of scrimmage, and won’t lack any motivation against its arch-rival with a chance to play spoiler and make it four straight over the Buckeyes.

Oregon remains the projected Big Ten champion coming into this week, at least according to the College Football Playoff selection committee.

That leaves Ohio State as the expected No. 5 seed in the playoff, set to host a first-round playoff game on campus against projected No. 12 Arizona State as things stand today.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Buckeyes host the Wolverines this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Michigan compare in this college football classic.

Ohio State vs. Michigan score prediction

As expected, the models favor the Buckeyes this time around, and by a sizable margin, too.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 36 to 10 and to win the game by an expected margin of 25.4 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes a near-perfect 94 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.

Ohio State vs. Michigan odds, how to pick The Game

Ohio State is a 20.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

FanDuel set the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -2100 and for Michigan at +1000 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ohio State -20.5
• Buckeyes to win -2100
• Bet over 43.5 points

A slight majority of bettors expect the Wolverines will keep it close against the Buckeyes, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Michigan is getting 51 percent of the bets to either win outright in an upset or to keep the margin under 3 touchdowns in a loss.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win and cover the big spread.

Computer prediction

Most analytical football models project the Buckeyes will get past the Wolverines with ease.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State comes out ahead in 91.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Michigan as the expected winner in the remaining 8.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 21.3 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current capacity, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction: What the analytics say

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Michigan vs. Ohio State in The Game 2024

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Columbus, Ohio

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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