Ohio State vs. Michigan State football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Ohio State vs. Michigan State by the football model that picks winners.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State football prediction / Dale Young-Imagn Images

Big Ten football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 3 Ohio State embarks on its first road trip against Michigan State in Saturday night’s Week 5 action.

Ohio State has run through its non-conference schedule with expected ease, outscoring opponents 157 to 20 and posting the nation’s No. 4 scoring offense with 52.3 points per game.

Michigan State already has a win in Big Ten play after beating Maryland two weeks ago, but is coming off a close loss to Boston College and sits 93rd in FBS in scoring offense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State predictions

As expected, the Buckeyes are a big favorite this week, according to the models.

Ohio State comes out as the projected winner in the overwhelming 92.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves the Spartans as the expected winner in the remaining 7.2 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 23.2 points better than Michigan State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is a 24 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 48.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -3000 and for Michigan State at +1300 to win outright.

Most bettors currently project the Buckeyes will handle the Spartans easily in the B1G opener.

That includes 58 percent of bets that currently suggest Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 42 percent of wagers expect Michigan State will either win in an upset, or, more likely, keep the game within the 24 point line.

Ohio State is projected to defeat Michigan State by an implied score of 36 to 12, resulting in a push and the game hitting the under.

The Buckeyes are first among Big Ten teams with a 78.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.1 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

Michigan State will win 5.7 games and has a 0.3 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks