Ohio State vs. Michigan State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Michigan State in this Week 5 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State score prediction / Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Big Ten rivals meet this weekend as No. 3 Ohio State embarks on its first road trip of the season against Michigan State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

Ohio State has plowed through its non-conference schedule so far, outscoring opponents 157 to 20 and ranks 5th nationally in scoring offense at 52.3 points per game on average.

Michigan State is 4 points away from being undefeated after a narrow loss to Boston College last week and already owns a win in Big Ten play after beating Maryland earlier in the season.

What can we expect in this weekend’s matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Michigan State compare in this Week 5 Big Ten football game.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State score prediction

As expected, the simulations strongly favor the Buckeyes in their first road test of the season.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Michigan State by a projected score of 35 to 6 and to win the game by an expected 29 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes a virtually guaranteed 97 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Ohio State is a 23.5 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 48.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -4000 and for Michigan State at +1400 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ohio State -23.5
• Buckeyes to win -4000
• Bet under 48.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also strongly favor the Buckeyes against the Spartans.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 92.8 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Michigan State as the expected winner in the remaining 7.2 percent of sims.

Ohio State should be 23.2 points better than Michigan State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams with a 79.8 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.1 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts Michigan State will win 5.7 games with a 53.2 percent chance to become bowl eligible at the end of the season.

More ... Ohio State vs. Michigan State prediction: What the analytics say

How to watch Ohio State vs. Michigan State

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: Peacock

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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