Ohio State vs. Nebraska football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Ohio State vs. Nebraska by an analytical football model that picks winners.

Ohio State vs. Nebraska football prediction / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Coming off an open week and following its first loss of the season, No. 4 Ohio State returns home against conference rival Nebraska on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model that picks matchups.

Ohio State is 1 point away from being undefeated after a loss at Oregon two weeks ago and needs to not get caught looking ahead to another critical road test coming up at Penn State next week.

Nebraska is in danger of falling under .500 in Big Ten play after getting trounced by new contender Indiana last week, playing some solid defense up to that point, still allowing under 18 points per game, but averaging only 25 on the other side, ranking 90th nationally.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Nebraska predictions

As expected, the simulations are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers.

Ohio State is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes come out ahead in 19,300 of the index’s simulations, while the Cornhuskers edge out OSU in the other 700 predictions.

When it comes to projecting a margin of victory, the index predicts a sizable win for the Buckeyes on the scoreboard, too.

Ohio State is projected to be 29.7 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against the Cornhuskers, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -6000 and for Nebraska at +1800 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Thus far, most bettors are giving the edge to the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ohio State is getting 61 percent of bets to beat the Huskers and cover the big spread in the process.

The other 39 percent of wagers project the Cornhuskers will either win the game in an upset, or more likely, will lose the game by 25 points or fewer.

Ohio State vs. Nebraska future predictions

Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 78 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a win total prediction of 10.7 games this season.

Nebraska is eighth in the conference with a 0.1 percent shot at the new 12-team playoff.

And the Cornhuskers are projected to win 6.5 games this season by the index’s calculations.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Ole Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Vanderbilt

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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