Ohio State vs. Northwestern football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Ohio State vs. Northwestern in this Week 12 college football game from an analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State vs. Northwestern football prediction / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Big Ten football kicks off on the shores of Lake Michigan this weekend as No. 2 Ohio State hits the road against Northwestern. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State is still behind undefeated Oregon and Indiana in the Big Ten standings and, with the loss to the Ducks, needs to stay winning with the Hoosiers coming up next weekend.

Northwestern moved to 2-4 in Big Ten play after getting past Purdue last time out but sits 120th in passing output and 126th out of 134 FBS teams in scoring production with 18 points per game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Northwestern predictions

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Wildcats this weekend.

Ohio State is the big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 95.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Northwestern as the presumptive winner in the remaining 4.7 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out ahead in 19,060 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Wildcats edged out OSU in the other 940 predictions.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 26.7 points better than Northwestern on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread against the Wildcats.

That’s because Ohio State is a 28.5 point favorite against Northwestern, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

The book didn’t list any moneyline odds for the game, given the Buckeyes are such big favorites.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors expect the Wildcats will make things closer against the Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Northwestern is getting 53 percent of bets to either win outright in the upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 29 points in a loss.

The other 47 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the big point spread.

Ohio State vs. Northwestern future projections

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams and third nationally with a 92.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a win total projection of 11 games this season.

Northwestern’s postseason hopes are just about dashed, but not extinguished just yet.

The model projects the Wildcats will win 4.6 games in ‘24.

That translates to a 10.9 percent shot to become bowl eligible this season.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

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How to watch Ohio State vs. Northwestern

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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