Ohio State vs. Northwestern score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Northwestern in this Week 12 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State vs. Northwestern score prediction / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Big Ten football kicks off from the shores of Lake Michigan as Northwestern welcomes No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State moved to 5-1 in Big Ten play but still sits behind the Oregon squad it lost to and the undefeated Indiana team it will host next weekend, so there’s still plenty of work to do.

Northwestern improved to 2-4 in conference after beating Purdue two weeks ago, but has definitely struggled on offense, ranking 119th in passing and 126th in scoring nationally.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Buckeyes and Wildcats meet in this Big Ten clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Northwestern compare in this Week 12 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Northwestern score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Buckeyes over the Wildcats in this one.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Northwestern by a projected score of 37 to 6 and will win the game by an expected margin of 31.2 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes a near-perfect 97 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Ohio State vs. Northwestern odds, how to pick

Ohio State is a 28.5 point favorite against Northwestern, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the game.

And it declined to post any moneyline odds given the Buckeyes are such big favorites.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ohio State -28.5
• Bet under 43.5 points

A slight majority of bettors expect the Wildcats will make things closer against the Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Northwestern is getting 53 percent of bets to either win outright in the upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin under 29 points in a loss.

The other 47 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the big point spread.

Ohio State vs. Northwestern splits

Ohio State ranks No. 1 nationally by winning its games by an average of 27.9 points this season, while Northwestern comes into the game averaging 6 points worse than opponents, ranking 92nd in FBS.

Those margins have diverged over the last three games.

Ohio State has been 18.7 points better than the competition in that span, while Northwestern has averaged 13.3 points worse than its opponents over that time.

But things get a little closer when it comes to the venue.

Ohio State is 12.3 points better than opponents when playing on the road this season, compared to Northwestern being 9 points worse when playing at home.

How do the teams compare on a per-play basis?

Ohio State ranks No. 4 nationally by averaging 0.590 points per play on offense, against a Northwestern defense that is 42nd by allowing 0.336 points per play on average.

Offensively, the Wildcats rank just No. 112 in FBS with 0.292 points per play while the Buckeyes defense is 2nd in the country allowing just 0.176 points per play on average.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models also favor the Buckeyes by a wide margin over the Wildcats.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is the big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 95.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Northwestern as the presumptive winner in the remaining 4.7 percent of sims.

How does all that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 26.7 points better than Northwestern on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ohio State vs. Northwestern prediction: What the analytics say

Ohio State vs. Northwestern future projections

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams and third nationally with a 92.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a win total projection of 11 games this season.

Northwestern’s postseason hopes are just about toast, but not completely extinguished.

The model projects the Wildcats will win 4.6 games in ‘24.

That translates to a 10.9 percent shot to become bowl eligible this season.

How to watch Ohio State vs. Northwestern

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Big Ten Network

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks