Ohio State vs. Oregon score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Oregon in this Week 7 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Oregon score prediction / Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

One of the Big Ten’s newest rivalry games kicks off under the lights in one of the nation’s toughest stadiums, as No. 3 Oregon plays host to No. 2 Ohio State in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that picks winners.

Both are 5-0 overall and 2-0 in Big Ten play, but each will present by far the biggest challenge to each other on both sides of the ball in this marquee matchup.

Ohio State pulverized its non-conference opponents but was slowed early on by Iowa’s tough defense before ultimately pulling away, ranking 1st in FBS in scoring defense by allowing under a touchdown per game, and 4th in scoring offense, with 46 points on average.

Oregon won its first two games by a combined 13 points, but rebounded in recent weeks, beating its first three Big Ten opponents by an average of 26 points, despite some inconsistency on both sides of the ball amid questions on the offensive line.

What do the analytics suggest for the matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Oregon compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Oregon score prediction

So far, the models are giving a slight edge to the road team in this game.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Oregon by a projected score of 29 to 26 and will win the game by an expected 2.9 point margin.

The model gives the Buckeyes a slight 57 percent chance at outright victory against the Ducks.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a 52.2 win percentage.

Ohio State vs. Oregon odds, picks

Ohio State is a 3.5 point favorite against Oregon, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -155 and for Oregon at +135 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Oregon +3.5
• Ohio State to win -155
• Bet over 54.5 points

Bettors are almost even on how to project the game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

But the Ducks are getting a little more love, as 52 percent of bets suggest they will either win the game in an upset at home, or keep things under the line.

The other 48 percent of bets project that Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread.

Computer prediction

Most analytical models are giving the Buckeyes a slight edge over the Ducks in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is projected to win outright in 64.1 percent of the FPI computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Oregon as the expected winner in the remaining 35.9 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 5.3 points better than Oregon on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: What the analytics say

Ohio State is first among Big Ten teams with a 91.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.6 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Oregon a win total prediction of 10.4 games and puts the team in second place in the conference with a 65.4 percent shot at the playoff.

How to watch Ohio State vs. Oregon

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: NBC network

More: Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins, and why?

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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