Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Ohio State and Oregon meet in this new-look Big Ten clash, with our updated prediction for this marquee Week 7 game.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks Prediction / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

This weekend brings us a new Big Ten matchup as No. 2 Ohio State hits the road against No. 3 Oregon in college football’s Week 7 action on Saturday night. Here’s what you should watch out for, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State and Oregon are both 5-0 overall this season and are 2-0 in Big Ten play: the Buckeyes outlasted some tough early defense from Iowa last week to eventually pull away, and ranks 4th in scoring offense and 1st nationally in scoring defense.

After skirting past its first two opponents by a combined 13 points, Oregon rebounded in conference play to defeat its next three foes by an average of 26 points.

What can we expect when the Buckeyes and the Ducks meet in this Big Ten clash?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Ohio State and Oregon square off in this Week 7 college football matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: What to watch for

1. In the trenches. For all that Oregon returned to its offensive line, injuries and rotation changes have made the unit less reliable than expected, in particular when protecting for the pass, allowing 7 sacks already after allowing 5 last year, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel has been under pressure on nearly a quarter of his dropbacks.

Ohio State plays physical football on its defensive line, led by the likes of Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams, and Ty Hamilton, a rotation that together leads the nation in total pressure rate and allows the fewest explosive runs of any team in the country.

2. Ground and pound. Since the Boise State game when Ashton Jeanty ran all over them, the Ducks have improved their run defense, not allowing a single back to surpass 57 yards on the ground and their last 3 opponents have combined to average under 80 yards rushing.

Ohio State is strong against the rush so far, ranking 5th nationally by averaging 6.24 yards per carry between Quinshon Judkins (5 TDs) and TreVeyon Henderson (4 TDs), who together combine to average 8 ypc, and the Buckeyes are 6th in FBS with 16 rushing touchdowns. 

3. Going deep. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel has proved remarkably efficient overall this season, completing 78 percent of his passes, and although he’s struggled in his career against better teams, going 2-9 against ranked opposition, he has an elite group of receivers to work with.

It’ll be the toughest rotation that Ohio State’s secondary has lined up against by far this season and presents a diverse challenge coming both out of the slot from Tez Johnson, and on both perimeters with Evan Stewart and Traeshon Holden testing the edges.

And the Buckeyes’ secondary has been vulnerable on third down when the ball is in the air, allowing opponents to complete almost 67 percent of their passes in that situation.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are siding with the Buckeyes in this road matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is projected to win outright in a majority 64.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Oregon as the expected winner in remaining 35.8 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 5.3 points better than Oregon on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Ohio State is a 3.5 point favorite against Oregon, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -152 and for Oregon at +126 to win outright.

A slight majority of bettors expect Oregon will make this a game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

52 percent of bets predict the Ducks will either beat the Buckeyes in an upset or keep the game within the narrow line.

The other 48 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread.

Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins?

Ohio State will have to play not just Oregon, but Autzen Stadium, too, the raucous home field where the Ducks have gone 34-1 since 2018, and that advantage should not be discounted.

To make the most of that noise and throw the visitors off their game, Oregon wants a lot of early tempo on offense, meaning a lot of quick, midrange passes for Gabriel to build momentum to make up for any potential protection issues and to outmaneuver Ohio State’s excellent front seven pressure.

That should result in an early lead for the Ducks, one they can hold with some quality run defense that will stall the Buckeyes’ attempt to establish the run the ball early in the game.

But the Ducks’ relative lack of offensive consistency will become more apparent in the face of the Buckeyes’ front, which will give the secondary more room to successfully navigate against Oregon’s battery of receivers. 

And pave the way for Ohio State’s skill threats -- the likes of Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and the Judkins/Henderson duo -- to finish the job late in the game.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ohio State wins 34-31
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

How to watch Ohio State vs. Oregon

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: NBC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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