Ohio State vs. Oregon, Rose Bowl prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Ohio State and Oregon face off in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal round, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State vs. Oregon football prediction / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State and Oregon meet in the College Football Playoff Rose Bowl quarterfinal round on New Year’s Day. Here’s what you should watch for, with our updated prediction for the game.

It’s a rematch of one of college football’s most enticing regular season matchups, after the Ducks got past the Buckeyes in a one-point nail-biter at Autzen Stadium back in October.

Oregon went on to win the Big Ten championship in its first year in the conference, and finished as college football’s only undefeated team, earning the first round bye as the No. 1 overall seed.

Ohio State seemed to be in line to face Oregon for the conference crown, but a surprise loss to rival Michigan as a heavy favorite spoiled those plans.

Still, the Buckeyes earned the right to host a first round game, which they took full advantage of by demolishing SEC challenger Tennessee in a 42-17 rout to book a spot in the Rose Bowl.

What can we expect as the Buckeyes and Ducks reunite in this historic postseason game?

Here’s what you should watch for as Ohio State and Oregon meet in the College Football Playoff Rose Bowl quarterfinal round, with our updated prediction for the game.

Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: What to watch

1. On the ground. Oregon plays some strong defense overall and against the run, but it comes into this game ranked just 98th among 134 FBS teams in success rate against the rush.

That could become a concern should the Buckeyes build some early momentum on the ground behind star backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.

Oregon allowed Penn State to run for almost 300 yards in the Big Ten title game, the most of any opponent under head coach Dan Lanning.

But it’ll be up to Ohio State’s line, which is down its starting left tackle and center to injuries, to prove they can get enough push against Oregon’s defensive front to open those running lanes.

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2. Going deep. Ohio State is ranked No. 1 nationally both in total defense and passing defense, but its secondary looked wobbly when going against Oregon’s targets the last time out.

Dillon Gabriel threw for 341 yards in the first meeting with Ohio State, which struggled to contain Ducks wideouts Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart as the game wore on.

Gabriel may not test the deep field very often, ranking 80th among quarterbacks with the most pass attempts of 20 or more yards, but he’s the single most efficient passer in the country on those throws, completing 56 percent of them.

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3. At the line. In both its losses this year, Ohio State didn’t record a single sack, illustrating the impact its defensive pressure, led by two of the nation’s premier edge rushers in Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, plays in its winning games this season.

Oregon protects its quarterback very well, ranking 12th in the country by allowing just 13 total sacks on the year, and is 12th nationally in allowing under four negative plays per game on average.

Gabriel is also a noted dual threat with the escapability to evade that pressure and extend plays by running in and out of the pocket, allowing his receivers more time to elude their own defenders and find a gap in the coverage.

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Who is favored?

Ohio State is a 2.5 point favorite against Oregon, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -112, Under -108).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -134 and for Oregon at +112 to win outright.

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Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins?

Ohio State’s performance against Tennessee was inspiring, in large part because it came at a certain moment when the mood surrounding the team was at a low ebb, coming out of the Michigan loss, and amid reports that Vols fans were preparing to “take over” Ohio Stadium in the first round game.

And while the Buckeyes played aggressive football in that moment, that moment has passed.

With that emotional edge likely diminished, we should see things even out considerably as these teams head into their rematch.

Especially as both teams come in armed with some of the most agile skill players in the country.

Ohio State can strike from anywhere on the field at any time with weapons like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka at wide receiver and with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson on the ground.

Likewise, the Ducks are getting remarkable production from Gabriel, who threw for 28 touchdowns and ran for 7 more, dealing to three different wideouts with at least 600 yards -- Tez Johnson, Traeshon Holden, and Evan Stewart -- and boasting a 1,200-yard back in Jordan James.

This feels like a coin flip, but we’ll give the edge to the undefeated team, especially with questions remaining around the Buckeyes’ two big losses on the offensive line.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Oregon wins 34-31
• In an upset
• And hits the over

More ... Ohio State vs. Oregon score prediction by football model

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How to watch the 2024 Rose Bowl Game

When: Wed., Jan. 1
Where: Pasadena, Calif.

Time: 5 p.m. ET | 2 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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