Ohio State vs. Oregon score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Oregon in the College Football Playoff Rose Bowl quarterfinal game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State vs. Oregon football score prediction 2024 / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Ohio State and Oregon are set for a rematch in the College Football Playoff Rose Bowl quarterfinal game on New Year’s Day. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State and Oregon met once before this season, with the Ducks holding off the Buckeyes by a single point in one of the regular season’s most impactful and important games.

Oregon went on to win the Big Ten championship in its first year in the conference and is playing some of the nation’s most efficient offense behind Heisman finalist quarterback Dillon Gabriel.

Ohio State hosted Tennessee in the first round College Football Playoff game, dominating its SEC challenger at home in a 42-17 rout to earn a place against the Ducks in Pasadena.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Buckeyes and Ducks meet in the playoff?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Oregon compare in the College Football Playoff Rose Bowl quarterfinal game.

Ohio State vs. Oregon score prediction

It looks like the model is taking the Buckeyes over the Ducks in this Big Ten postseason rematch, but the scarlet and gray will have to sweat it out.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Oregon by a projected score of 26 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of just 0.9 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes a narrow 52 percent chance to beat the Ducks outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Rose Bowl odds, how to pick the game

Ohio State is a 2.5 point favorite against Oregon, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -132 and for Oregon at +110 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Oregon +2.5
• Ohio State to win -132
• Bet under 55.5 points

If you do, that would put you in the slight majority of bettors, most of whom expect the Ducks will give the Buckeyes a scare, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oregon is getting 58 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset and advance to the semifinal round, or to lose the game by 1 or 2 points.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win by at least a field goal and cover this narrow point spread in a victory.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Buckeyes to edge out the Ducks in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is a narrow favorite, according to the index, coming out ahead of the Ducks in the slight majority 53.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

And while the Ducks weren’t projected to win, they still came out ahead of the Buckeyes in the remaining 46.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

When taking an average of all the computer’s simulations, Ohio State is projected to be just 1.3 points better than Oregon on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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How to watch the 2024 Rose Bowl Game

When: Wed., Jan. 1
Where: Pasadena, Calif.

Time: 5 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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