Ohio State vs. Penn State football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a new prediction for Ohio State vs. Penn State in this marquee Week 10 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Penn State football prediction / Matthew OHaren-Imagn Images

A key battle between top-four ranked rivals kicks off from Happy Valley as No. 3 Penn State welcomes No. 4 Ohio State on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State is 1 point away from being undefeated after a close loss to Oregon a few weeks ago and can hardly afford a second loss to a highly-ranked team and keep its playoff hopes intact.

Penn State moved to 4-0 in Big Ten play but with some concerns around its starting quarterback after Drew Allar left last week’s game with an injury.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Penn State predictions

So far, the simulations are siding with the Buckeyes over the Nittany Lions.

Ohio State is expected to win the game in the majority 61.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Penn State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 38.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out ahead in 12,240 of the index’s calculations for the game, while the Nittany Lions edged out OSU in the other 7,760 predictions.

And the index foresees a very close game when considering the possible margins.

Ohio State is projected to be 4 points better than Penn State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be just enough to cover the spread in this one.

That’s because Ohio State is a 3.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total 45.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -170 and for Penn State at +140 to win outright.

What the bettors say

So far, a plurality of bettors are taking the home side against the visiting Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Penn State is getting 62 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or to keep the final score to a field goal or less in a loss.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the narrow spread.

Ohio State vs. Penn State future predictions

Penn State is second among Big Ten teams with an 83.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Nittany Lions a win total prediction of 11.1 games this season.

Ohio State is right behind in those projections, ranking third in the Big Ten with a 73 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

And the index forecasts 10.5 wins for the Buckeyes in ‘24.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (61)
2. Georgia (1)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Miami
6. Texas
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. BYU
10. Texas A&M
T-11. Clemson/Iowa State
13. Indiana
14. Alabama
15. Boise State
16. LSU
17. Kansas State
18. Pittsburgh
19. Ole Miss
20. SMU
21. Army
22. Washington State
23. Colorado
24. Illinois
25. Missouri

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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