Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to watch for as Ohio State and Penn State meet in this Week 10 college football game with a ton on the line, with our updated prediction.

Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

The game of the week finds No. 4 Ohio State on the road at Happy Valley in a marquee clash against No. 3 Penn State in college football’s Week 10 action on Saturday. Here’s what you should watch for, along with our updated prediction for the game.

“Everything” might not be on the line for Ohio State here, but with one loss already on the books, its Big Ten and playoff hopes would take a serious hit with another defeat on the road against a highly-ranked conference opponent.

Penn State has more leeway, coming in as one of college football’s few remaining undefeated teams and working behind another strong defense and home-field advantage as head coach James Franklin looks to finally get one over on the Buckeyes, and really any top-five team.

What can we expect as the Nittany Lions play host to the Buckeyes in this Big Ten clash?

Here’s what you should watch out for as Ohio State and Penn State square off in this Week 10 college football rivalry game, with our updated prediction for what happens.

Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction: What to watch

1. Battle at the line. All eyes are on the Buckeyes’ blind side after star left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the year with an injury, and then his replacement, Zen Michalski, had his own issue.

The line was a problem in a narrow win against a Nebraska defense that allowed 56 points to Indiana the week before, and that resulted in some season-low offensive output for the Buckeyes, especially on the ground.

Now that unit goes up against a Penn State front seven that is among the most physical and aggressive in the country, stacking up 46 negative plays, averages 2 sacks per game, and is allowing 93 rushing yards per game.

2. On the ground. Ohio State is No. 2 nationally in total defense and No. 6 against the run, allowing just 5 touchdowns and only 2.84 yards per carry against opposing backs, and now lines up against Penn State’s dynamic duo in the backfield.

Kaytron Allen has 509 yards rushing this season and Nicholas Singleton had 493 more for an offense that ranks 28th in FBS with 5.13 yards per carry and 13 total touchdowns.

3. Injury watch. Drew Allar leads the Big Ten in yards and touchdowns over the last 2 years, but the quarterback’s 20-game starting streak is an open question after he was injured last week at Wisconsin. Signs point to his playing, but any limitations on his part could derail Penn State’s offensive effort.

But even if he should take the field, the Nittany Lions could still use backup Beau Pribula, who helped win last week’s game with a touchdown and is a credible rushing threat in his own right and adds a dose of unpredictability, who can put a real spark into the offense if things slow down.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are giving the Buckeyes an edge over the Nittany Lions in this one.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

How does that model foresee events in Happy Valley this weekend?

Ohio State came out ahead in the majority 60.9 percent of the computer’s simulations for the game, while Penn State emerged as the presumptive winner in the other 39.1 percent of sims.

And when it comes to a margin of victory? Expect a close game, but one that covers the spread.

Ohio State is projected to be 4 points better than Penn State on the same field in the computer simulations, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ohio State vs. Penn State splits

Ohio State has been 28.4 points better than its opponents on average so far this season when accounting for its scoring margins in wins and losses.

Penn State has been 19 points better than its competition on average in 2024.

Over the last three games, those numbers have grown much closer, however.

Ohio State is 10.3 points better than its opponents over that time, while Penn State has averaged 11.3 points better than the other team in that span.

Penn State has dominated at home, averaging 23.3 points more than the competition when playing in the confines of Beaver Stadium.

Ohio State has been 16 points better on a rough average when playing games on the road, although those results are skewed, beating Michigan State by 31 and losing to Oregon by 1.

Who is favored?

Ohio State is a 3.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -150 and for Penn State at +125 to win outright.

Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction: Who wins?

This is starting to look a little too familiar for Penn State. Four times in the last seven years have the Nittany Lions been undefeated before the Buckeyes handed them that first crushing defeat.

But while Happy Valley waits for James Franklin to turn into Jim Harbaugh and finally break that curse with a little win streak of his own, this matchup still suggests otherwise.

Penn State’s defensive output is admirable, but consider the competition. It’s yet to face an offense that ranks top 30 nationally, and has lined up against just one in the top 50 throwing the ball, and that was against a USC team that led by two touchdowns at one point before Tyler Warren almost singlehandedly led that comeback.

And it hasn’t faced a defense of Ohio State’s caliber, not to mention the rotation of blue-chip skill players on offense who will stretch out the Nittany Lions’ secondary alignment early and often.

There is a marked skill gap between the kind of receiver speed the Buckeyes can put on the field, especially when combined with a 1-2 punch in the backfield that averages 5.44 yards per carry with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins that balances things out.

But expect this to be a game going into the fourth quarter, as Penn State’s edge rushers jostle Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard in the pocket and force him into some hurried throws before his guys can get open.

Howard has some strategic mobility that can help him lengthen those plays when the pressure is on, but he doesn’t have the kind of speed that can easily outmaneuver the Nittany Lions’ pursuers on a consistent basis, especially with that glaring issue at left tackle yet to be solved.

That keeps this game close throughout, but eventually the dam does break, and Ohio State not only has the bodies up front to force Allar -- if he plays, and he’s always struggled under pressure -- into some gaffes of his own, but the speed to take the top off this defense when it counts.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Ohio State wins 27-23
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Ohio State vs. Penn State score prediction by expert model

How to watch Ohio State vs. Penn State

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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