Ohio State vs. Penn State score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Penn State in this Week 10 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State vs. Penn State score prediction 2024 / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A marquee Big Ten matchup finds No. 3 Penn State playing host to No. 4 Ohio State in a bombshell confrontation with potential national title implications on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State is 1 point away from being undefeated after the loss at Oregon and pulled away from upset-minded Nebraska last week, sitting at 3-1 in Big Ten play moving into November with little to no margin for error in its national championship ambitions.

Penn State is one of college football’s few remaining undefeated teams, sitting at 7-0 on the year and with a decisive home-field advantage as head coach James Franklin looks to end his losing ways against top-five teams and move into the College Football Playoff picture.

What do the analytical models suggest as the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions meet in this Big Ten clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Penn State compare in this Week 10 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Penn State score prediction

So far, the models are giving the Buckeyes an edge in this road test, but by a very narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Penn State by a projected score of 25 to 24 and will win the matchup by an expected margin of 1.5 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes a close 54 percent chance of outright victory over the Nittany Lions.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Ohio State vs. Penn State game odds, picks

Ohio State is a 3.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -162 and for Penn State at +134 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Penn State +3.5
• Ohio State to win -162
• Bet over 45.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a big plurality of bettors who expect the Nittany Lions to challenge the Buckeyes for those 3.5 points, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Penn State is getting 62 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final score under 4 points in a prospective loss.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

Ohio State vs. Penn State splits

Ohio State has been 28.4 points better than its opponents on average so far this season when accounting for its scoring margins in wins and losses.

Penn State has been 19 points better than its competition on average in 2024.

Over the last three games, those numbers have grown much closer, however.

Ohio State is 10.3 points better than its opponents over that time, while Penn State has averaged 11.3 points better than the other team in that span.

Penn State has dominated at home, averaging 23.3 points more than the competition when playing in the confines of Beaver Stadium.

Ohio State has been 16 points better on a rough average when playing games on the road, beating Michigan State by 31 and losing to Oregon by 1.

Computer predictions

Most other analytical models also give a slight edge to the Buckeyes over the Nittany Lions.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State came out ahead in the majority 61.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Penn State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 38.8 percent of sims.

How does that translate into a margin of victory in the game? The index forecasts the Buckeyes will be a half-point better than the spread.

Ohio State is projected to be 4 points better than Penn State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ohio State vs. Penn State future predictions

Penn State is second among Big Ten teams with an 83.1 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Nittany Lions a win total prediction of 11.1 games this season.

Ohio State is right behind in those projections, ranking third in the Big Ten with a 73 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

And the index forecasts 10.5 wins for the Buckeyes in ‘24.

How to watch Ohio State vs. Penn State

When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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