Ohio State vs. Purdue football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert analytical model offers a prediction for Ohio State vs. Purdue in this Week 11 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Purdue football prediction / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Big Ten football kicks off this weekend as No. 3 Ohio State returns home against Purdue. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the matchup from an expert model that simulates games.

Ohio State improved to 7-1 on the year after a statement victory at Penn State and cementing its place near the top of the Big Ten pecking order as playoff selection draws nearer.

Purdue has no such luck, sitting at 0-5 in Big Ten play and ranking 119th in scoring offense while losing seven straight games since the season opener.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Purdue predictions

It’s safe to say the models are siding heavily with the Buckeyes over the Boilermakers this week.

Ohio State is the big home favorite, coming out ahead in the overwhelming majority 99 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Purdue as the presumptive winner in the remaining 1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into a projected margin of victory for the game?

Ohio State is projected to be 41.2 points better than Purdue on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be more than enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is a 38.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors expect the Boilermakers to keep things closer against the Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Purdue is getting 55 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the margin within the generous point spread.

The other 45 percent of wagers expect Ohio State to win the game and cover the big spread.

Ohio State vs. Purdue future predictions

Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 91.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a win total prediction of 11 games this season.

Purdue is basically finished, projected to win 1.2 games and mathematically disqualified from being eligible for a bowl.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. Ole Miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. Pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. Louisville

How to watch Purdue vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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