Ohio State vs. Purdue score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Purdue in this Week 11 college football game from an expert model that picks winners.

Ohio State vs. Purdue score prediction / Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Coming off a big win, No. 3 Ohio State returns home against Purdue on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State passed a big test by knocking off Penn State on the road and sits just 1 point away from an undefeated record and emerged as the No. 2 team in the first College Football Playoff rankings, but as the projected No. 5 seed this week as Oregon remains the presumptive Big Ten favorite.

Purdue comes in 0-5 in Big Ten play and 119th nationally in scoring offense and not having won a game since the Week 1 opener.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Buckeyes welcome the Boilermakers in this Big Ten clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Ohio State and Purdue compare in this Week 11 college football game.

Ohio State vs. Purdue score prediction

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Boilermakers this week.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Purdue by a projected score of 47 to 5 and will win the game by an expected margin of 41.6 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes a perfect 100 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Ohio State vs. Purdue odds, what to pick

Ohio State is a 37.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

There are no moneyline odds posted for the game, as Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Ohio State -37.5
• Bet under 53.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in a minority of bettors, a slight majority of whom are expecting the Boilermakers keep things a little closer, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Purdue is getting 52 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or far more likely, to keep the final margin under 38 points in a loss.

The other 48 percent of wagers project Ohio State will win the game and cover the big point spread in the process.

Ohio State vs. Purdue splits

Ohio State ranks No. 3 nationally with a plus-25.8 point differential on average against opponents this season when counting wins and losses.

Purdue is on the other extreme, ranking 133rd out of 134 FBS teams with a minus-26 point differential on the year.

Those margins have regressed in the last three games for both teams, as the Buckeyes have played 3.3 points better than opponents while the Boilermakers have been 14 points worse than the competition over that span.

Ohio State has dominated at home, averaging 33.8 points better than opponents in the Horseshoe, while Purdue has averaged 21.3 points worse when playing on the road.

Computer predictions

Most analytical models predictably favor the Buckeyes over the Boilermakers in this one.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State comes out ahead in 99 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the game.

That leaves Purdue as the presumptive winner in the other 1 percent of sims.

How does that translate to a margin of victory?

Ohio State is projected to be 41.2 points better than Purdue on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ohio State vs. Purdue future projections

Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 92.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Buckeyes will win 11 games this season.

Purdue sits last in the Big Ten with a 1.3 game win projection in 2024, according to the index.

How to watch Purdue vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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