Ohio State vs. Tennessee football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Ohio State vs. Tennessee in this first round College Football Playoff matchup from the analytical model that simulates games.

Ohio State vs. Tennessee football prediction 2024 / Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State welcomes Tennessee to the Horseshoe in a historic first-ever College Football Playoff game played on campus. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Ohio State gets to host the first round game owing to its whole-season achievements, but losses to Oregon and Michigan have the team in a more depressed mood than it would be otherwise, especially as the latter forfeited its right to play for the Big Ten title.

Tennessee beat Alabama this year, but losses to unranked Arkansas and then against CFP contender Georgia deprived the team of a home game in the first round, having to travel to Buckeye Country for this one, although it might be a more friendly environment than they imagined.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Tennessee prediction

So far, the projection models are taking the Buckeyes and their home field advantage against the visiting Vols, but by a more narrow margin.

Ohio State is the favorite in the matchup at home on the index, coming out on top in the majority 65.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Tennessee as the presumptive winner in the remaining 34.6 percent of sims.

In total, the Buckeyes came out ahead in 13,080 of the index’s calculations for the contest, while the Vols edged out OSU in the other 6,920 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

It looks like the computers favor the Buckeyes over the Volunteers by about a touchdown after going through all its simulations of the game.

Ohio State is projected to be 6.6 points better than Tennessee on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would not be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread against the Vols.

That’s because Ohio State is a 7.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the most recent game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -112, Under -108).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -280 and for Tennessee at +220 to win outright.

-

What the bettors say

So far, the Vols are getting more confidence to make this interesting against the Buckeyes, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee is getting the majority 68 percent of bets to either win the game outright in a big upset, or to keep the final margin to a touchdown or less in a loss.

The other 32 percent of wagers project Ohio State will cover the point spread in a win at home.

-

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

-

College Football Playoff bracket

No. 12 Clemson at
No. 5 Texas

Winner plays No. 4 Arizona State

-

No. 11 SMU at
No. 6 Penn State

Winner plays No. 3 Boise State

-

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Notre Dame

Winner plays No. 2 Georgia

-

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State

Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

-

College Football Playoff rankings

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami
14. Ole Miss 
15. South Carolina
16. Clemson
17. BYU
18. Iowa State
19. Missouri
20. Illinois
21. Syracuse
22. Army
23. Colorado
24. UNLV
25. Memphis

-

How to watch Tennessee vs. Ohio State

When: Sat., Dec. 21
Where: Columbus, Ohio

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC, ESPN networks

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks