Ohio State vs. Texas football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Ohio State vs. Texas in the Cotton Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal from an model that simulates games.

Ohio State vs. Texas football prediction 2025 / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State and Texas square off in the College Football Playoff Cotton Bowl semifinal game on Friday night. Let’s check in with the latest predictions for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

Ohio State has been the most dominant team in the College Football Playoff this postseason, overwhelming Tennessee and Oregon while scoring a combined 83 points and winning those two games by an average of 23 points.

Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has been just about unstoppable, catching 7 passes for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Rose Bowl win against Oregon.

Ohio State stacked up 500 total yards and posted nearly 9 yards per snap in the 41-21 victory and its defense held the Ducks to just 276 yards and had 8 sacks, more than twice what Oregon had surrendered to opponents total all season.

Texas is the SEC’s last hope in the playoff after Georgia was eliminated, and while its offense has been inconsistent over the last few weeks, its defense has been one of college football’s best over the whole season, ranking tops nationally in several categories and strong on both lines.

But it was close against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl quarterfinal as the Longhorns surrendered an early 14-3 lead and had to find a way back during overtime, winning by a 39-31 count.

Texas needs its elite defensive front to generate pressure against Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, who has played inspired football during the playoff run, especially behind an offensive line that has played above expectation after losing its starting left tackle and center to injuries.

And the Longhorns need to stabilize things on the ground: they were unstoppable to close out the regular season, struggled in the SEC title game, dominated again in the Clemson game, and then had more issues against the Sun Devils.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Texas prediction

So far, the models are taking a different view than the bookmakers, and are giving the Longhorns a slight edge against the Buckeyes on the field.

Texas is the narrow favorite according to the index, coming out ahead in the slight majority of 50.6 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

And while Ohio State wasn’t projected to win outright, it did come finish ahead of the Longhorns in a strong minority 49.4 percent of the other simulations.

In total, the Longhorns emerged as the winner in 10,120 of the index’s calculations, while the Buckeyes edged out Texas in the other 9,880 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a very close one.

When taking an average of the 20,000 simulations, Texas is projected to be just 1.3 points better than Ohio State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough to constitute an upset for the Longhorns.

That’s because Ohio State is a 5.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -230 and for Texas at +188 to win outright.

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What the bettors are saying

A plurality of bets are siding with the Buckeyes to handle the Longhorns in the semifinal round, according to the updated spread consensus picks for the game.

Ohio State is getting 67 percent of bets to cover the spread in a victory and advance to the national championship game.

The other 33 percent of wagers project Texas will either win the game outright in an upset, or keep the final margin under 6 points in a loss.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How to watch the 2024 Cotton Bowl semifinal game

When: Fri., Jan. 10
Where: Arlington, Tex.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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