Ohio State vs. Texas score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ohio State vs. Texas in the College Football Playoff Cotton Bowl semifinal game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State vs. Texas football score prediction / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State and Texas meet in a historic College Football Playoff Cotton Bowl semifinal game on Friday night from Jerry World. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas is the last SEC team standing in the College Football Playoff, one of three of that conference’s teams that made the 12-team field, beating ACC and Big 12 champions Clemson and Arizona State, respectively, in its two postseason games so far.

Despite opening up a 24-8 lead on the Sun Devils the last time out, Texas needed quarterback Quinn Ewers to help lead a comeback in overtime, going 20 of 30 in the game, covering over 300 yards and scoring three touchdowns, and throwing a critical fourth down conversion in the clutch.

Still, the offense has been inconsistent at times, especially when running the ball, averaging more than 6 yards per carry and totaling almost 300 yards against Clemson, but finishing with just 53 yards and posting a meager 1.8 yards per carry against Arizona State.

Defense has propelled the Longhorns to this position, ranking at or near the top of most every category nationally over the course of the season.

Especially up front on the line, which will have to bring a lot of pressure against Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard, who has played good football during the playoff behind a line that has outplayed its potential since losing its left tackle and center to season-ending injuries.

Howard is aided by arguably the single most talented skill rotation in college football, led by freshman phenom wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who scored twice off 7 catches for 187 yards in Ohio State’s statement 41-21 victory over Oregon in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal game.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Buckeyes and Longhorns meet in this historic postseason game with a shot at the national title on the line?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Texas compare in the College Football Playoff Cotton Bowl semifinal game.

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Ohio State vs. Texas score prediction

The models are sticking with the most dominant team in the College Football Playoff, taking the Buckeyes over the Longhorns, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Texas by a projected score of 26 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 4.8 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes a 62 percent chance to beat the Longhorns outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 392-365-9 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage.

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Cotton Bowl odds, how to pick the game

Ohio State is a 5.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the game (Over 105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -220 and for Texas at +180 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Texas +5.5
• Ohio State to win -220
• Bet under 53.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, most of whom are expecting the Buckeyes will handle the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ohio State is getting 67 percent of bets to cover the point spread while beating the Longhorns and moving onto the national championship game.

The other 33 percent of wagers project Texas will either upset Ohio State by winning the game outright or by keeping the final margin under six points in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Other analytical football models take a different view of the game, and some are expecting the Longhorns will pull off the upset against the Buckeyes.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is the very narrow favorite in the matchup according to the index, coming out ahead in the slight majority 50.6 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

Ohio State may not be the presumptive winner according to the projections, but it did come out on top of the Longhorns in the other 49.4 percent of sims.

And that narrow margin between the teams was represented when it came to how the computer calculated its prediction for the game’s scoring margin.

Texas is projected to be just 1.3 points better than Ohio State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast when taking an average of the computer’s 20,000 simulations of the game.

More ... Ohio State vs. Texas prediction: What the analytics say

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How to watch the 2025 Cotton Bowl semifinal game

When: Fri., Jan. 10
Where: Arlington, Tex.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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